Weekly Crypto Insider September 4th, 2023

The Google trend indicator showing cryptocurrency interest (search) levels is at multi-year lows.

This week:

Today is a great day in crypto,

Good news gets faded once again. Grayscale vs. SEC news was good for the market, but the price fully retraced the move up just two days after. Bitcoin’s price is back below 26k at $25,900, traders are waiting for a bounce from here or a break down lower towards the next support range at $23,300. The Monthly chart closed below May’s low, creating a market structure break, bulls need to get back above $29,000 to get any momentum.

Monthly chart closes below May’s low

The market is giving off a feeling of uninterested, unmotivated, unexcited, and dull. This sentiment could take a toll on the inexperienced participant, testing their conviction and patience for results. Time capitulation has commenced.

For the seasoned crypto cyclerorr (with the belief that we will one day creep back up to all-time highs) the time is coming near to start placing your bets on the next bull run competitors.

When people start losing interest is when you should start paying more attention, here are some sentiment indicators showing the market is losing interest (depression phase):

1. Crypto’s trading volume is at the lowest since 2020.

2. The Google trend indicator showing cryptocurrency interest (search) levels is at multi-year lows.

3. Price action volatility is at record lows (Bollinger bands are the closest ever).

In past cycles, these data points have shown to be the depression phase in the cycle, where most people lose interest and give up on crypto. The depression phase then leads to the price bottoming. Some analysts predict for this cycle that bottom will be found around Nov/Dec of this year.

I say, let’s stick around to find out!

ETH/BTC Chart:

The ETH/BTC chart can act as a general guide to the question of if it is better to hold in Altcoins or Bitcoin at the time. If ETH/BTC chart is trending down it will most likely be the same with most Altcoins to be trending down also. When ETH/BTC chart breaks to the upside, this will mean that ETH is outperforming BTC and so will be the case for most Altcoins. We will look for areas of support or resistance to help decide on how to position our portfolio.

ETH/BTC still has a way to go if it wants to build a longer time frame uptrend. It will need to break out of 0.067 to gain confidence, until then we will lean towards this chart putting in a higher low. No significant change here.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin Dominance is another confirmation on if Bitcoin is leading the way or are Altcoins taking up more of the total market cap. If the Bitcoin Dominance is trending higher, this means Bitcoin is taking up more of the total market cap and is leading the charge. When the Bitcoin Dominance tops out and goes down, this will be a time when Altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and you will want to be in Altcoins to have a higher potential for higher return on your trades.

BTC Dominance dropped to 49% but could be finding diagonal support.

BTC Dominance is below 50%% but is still technically in an uptrend (a break below 47.5% will invalidate the weekly uptrend). BTC Dominance next resistance level is 52%.

The Dollar index:

The saying goes, “when the dollar strength goes up, risk assets go down”, this might not be an exact correlation, but it is a general trend to consider when positioning in risk assets. Following the dollar index strength to add to your overall analysis and trend bias dealing with equities and crypto.

The DXY has made an impressive recovery in the last month when most people were counting it out breaking a key level at 101. It has now rallied and potentially be setting up to go higher in the next months.

Quick Bit:

Bitcoin is still consolidating around $26,000. We are waiting for either a bounce up towards $27,500 to make a lower high followed by a move down, or a continued bleed down with no bounce.

If BTC closes below 25k on the weekly chart we could see lower prices.

Next support at $23,300

The weekly timeframe is still in an uptrend, invalidation is a close below 25k.

Sentiment:

Fear

Remember, fear in trading means opportunities…

BTC Analysis:

Current Price: $25,900

Bulls need to put in some work if they want this uptrend to continue.

Next support areas are 24k-20k.

Long term hold buys between now and 20k will not be bad if you plan on holding for the next couple years.

We are watching closely for the next 6 months to accumulate a long-term position.

ETH Analysis:

Current price: $1,628

After ETH broke the $1,800 level, price has looked weak and is looking for support.

Analysts believe $1,100 is in play over the next 6 months.

Bulls want to see a close and re-claim of $1,800 to see a trend back to the upside.

ETH is at weekly support between $1,680 — $1,560.

We are looking for accumulation prices over the next 6 months between now and $1,000.

Long Term Buy Prices:

$1,700 — $1,500

$1,500 — $1,000

Monthly Bullish Order Block: $1,570 — $1,191

Long-term investing reminders and mindset:

Accumulate in high time frame support areas, weekly and monthly time frames.

Recognize the difference between a “dip” and a trend change, avoid buying short time frame dips (daily/12hr/4hr/1hr) in a high time frame down trend or (vice-versa) don’t buy small pumps if the longer time frame (weekly/monthly) are in a down trend.

BTC area to pay attention to on the weekly timeframe support: $25,000-$23,000

ETH area to pay attention to on the weekly timeframe support: $1,700–$1,500

8 months until BTC halving April-May 2024 (accumulation phase is now)

The bull run mindset is focused on the future 2024–2025.

BTC and ETH are safe havens compared to ALTS until new bull market is confirmed. Usually after BTC reaches a closer level to 60% in dominance. Right now, dominance is 49%.

Stronger ALTCOINS Above Daily 50/200 EMA’s:

This shows which Altcoins could be worth watching in the coming days/weeks, and that they look stronger on the charts compared to other Altcoins that are not above the 50/200 EMA’s.

The higher the time frame above or below the 50/200 EMA’s gives you an idea what the trend will continue as longer term. Lower time frames show a shorter trend.

For example: If the coin is above the 50/200 EMA’s on the weekly timeframe you can lean towards a bullish bias and that the trend will continue up for the next coming weeks or months looking to long any pullbacks. If the time frame you are looking at is on a lower time, let’s say the 1hr or 4hr, maybe you can expect that trend to only continue for the next day or less.

The coins below are shown on the daily timeframe so this list can change week to week, the purpose is to give you a pulse on the market week to week, and if you keep seeing the same coins appear here that could signal continued strength and to possibly look and build a position in them for a swing trade or long-term investment.

(This is just from the variety of coins that I keep track of, obviously there could be others)

1. PYR

2. TRIAS

3. XDC

4. RUNE

*Above 2D 50/200 EMA also

Quote of the week:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.