What’s Next in Crypto?
The signs are pointing to a large rally for the remainder of 2024.
The most hated word in crypto is “chop”, the sideways boring accumulation phase. Sure, it is difficult to stomach the 20% — 30% bull market pullbacks, but try twiddling your thumbs in boredom for 5 months while the price grinds down from an exciting early breach of ATH.
This crypto cycle started off with a bang, with Bitcoin prices breaching previous ATHs prior to the halving for the first time in crypto history. The spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and far exceeded most analyst expectations ($84B in total AUM to date), and a confluence of bullish catalysts began to form into what many expected to be a left-shifted cycle. Just as the overwhelming majority began calling for imminent $100K Bitcoin, laying out their 100X altcoin portfolios and posting their 1000% trades — Bitcoin did the unsurprising and steamrolled the whole lot of them.
Five months of painful pullbacks, fake-outs and chop have ironically led to a true perfect storm for crypto:
- Holder base is stronger than ever, with lettuce hands long since back at their McDs jobs and eating Mom’s Rice Krispies
- BTC and ETH exchange balances are at historically low levels
- BTC Miners are plum out of BTC, and sell pressure as a result of the halving profitability crisis has dried up.
- ETH spot ETF is set to begin trading in a matter of days
- Trump has become the de facto 2024 President-elect, and effects of his pro-crypto and economically stimulating policies being enacted are underappreciated.
- Market sentiment has lagged price recovery, when it follows it will swing the pendulum aggressively and cause a solid price run-up in the coming months
- Macro tailwinds are gathering, with rate reductions and QE on the near-term horizon, as well as Trump tax cuts and pro-crypto regulation in 2025.
What does it all mean?!
It means we are very likely to see a face-melting rally into Q3 and Q4 of this year, a brief nasty pullback, and then the parabolic bull rally that makes or breaks our portfolios in 2025.
END OF YEAR PRICE PREDICTIONS:
- End of Year 2024: BTC $85K–90K
- End of Year 2024: ETH $7,500 –8,500 (ETF’s could push this quite a bit higher if inflows are
CYCLE ATH PRICE PREDICTIONS:
- BTC $185,000 by fall of 2025
- ETH at $18,500 by fall of 2025
Full predictions article here:
https://medium.com/coinmonks/crypto-predictions-2024-2025-d3b789bff267
Conclusion:
It is often difficult to look past the red in the markets and the underperformance of our portfolios in favour of the long term view. We humans are not well equipped to think exponentially, and as a whole, we display extreme recency bias. We view the world through a lens of what is right in front of us.
As an example, five 10% increases in Bitcoin would bring us from $67K today, to over $107K. Ten such increases would bring BTC to nearly $175K. The reality is those are very conservative numbers, and although I expect Bitcoin to top out between $185K to $225K, there is the outside possibility of a super-cycle that sees sovereign and institutional FOMO push prices up to the $500K + range.
The true risk is not in buying Bitcoin, particularly if done responsibly and without leverage. The real risk is being on the sidelines, and passing on the biggest asymmetric opportunity of our lifetimes.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)
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