Window of Ideal Conditions Very Near

The Future of Bitcoin From Now To The End of Time, Part I

Remain Prepared for Take-off . . .

Photo by Miguel Ángel Sanz on Unsplash

This is the start of a big multi-part story designed to provide a working itinerary of what the future is most likely to hold for Bitcoin.

The intention is to provide a framework for making better decisions regarding our investments in Bitcoin (and/or its derivative ETF’s).

This potentially long story must start from where we are now TODAY, $54,108 on 5 July 2024 at 3:09 A.M. Eastern Standard Time (with historical references inserted as may be needed to provide context).

As we await the final moment for takeoff, you may have noticed a few instances of the rumblings and loud sounds as the engines are throttled up with the brakes on. That provides a quick final functional check at the same time as it allows us to accelerate to full takeoff speed a bit faster.

You also may have noticed that we have quickly aborted those few takeoffs. The reason being that while the aircraft is doing great, the external conditions above have been less than ideal.

There have been so many strong crosscurrents overhead, that even the birds seem to be confused and flying erratically. We would all prefer to avoid the necessity of turning around to make a heroic emergency landing due to a bird strike, and that has been the reason for the aborted takeoffs.

So let’s survey what those crosscurrents are to see if we can determine which direction the major current is likely to push us after the birds get their bearings back and get on their way away from us. And when?

I wanted to the next section to be about listing and describing the those currents (factors) which will determine the main direction and speed.

But due to the recent steepening and deepening of the current downdraft, you may be more interested in hearing about the more basic and immediate concerns first. So here they are:

1. First, NO significant changes to the big picture beyond the obvious and increasingly uncomfortable decrease in price over the past month;
2. The persistent selling appears to be primarily related to some involuntary holders who are price agnostic including the governments of Germany and the USA, as well as fears of large impending sales of large holdings related to the long ago prior failure of the Mount Gox exchange;
3. So continue to HODL (this is a great time to review what that accidental acronym has come to mean . . . HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE);

And be prepared to “stack some Sats” (BUY to add some Satoshi’s, each one of which is equal to 100,000,000th of one BTC) @ the SUPPORT levels that are now here and/or very near and now approaching) as follows:

$53,000;

$50,500;

$49,000*;

$38,500* (*any price below $50,000 may be a one-time gift never repeated).

Now onto the bigger and much more important question of:

Is the recovery and massive future price appreciation of BTC still mostly inevitable, and if so, WHY???

That is the biggest and most important question, and as such, it is also deserving of the most thoughtful and incisive answer(s). In any event, it is too much to fully and properly unpack in and digest one article, no matter how well it may be encapsulated. That is why this article is Part 1 of a multi-part series of articles to follow.

So for now, let’s take a quick peek at the top of the packing list of what we will be digging into more deeply in future articles as the series continues:

A. Powers of (nearly) Inevitable BTC Price Appreciation:

Central Banks: none of them even target zero inflation, therefore, they are promising to depreciate their fiat currencies, albeit at a low rate and a slow pace such that you will hardly notice (but will still result in the loss of over 80% of your purchasing power less than 40 years), and that is even before you sprinkle in the extra large lumps of inflation to pay for wars and other “emergencies”;

B. Outliers of Potential BTC Price Depression:

Productivity Miracle of the AI Boom: Brings the possibility, regardless of how remote or far into the future, of such staggering gains in productivity (greater amounts of goods and services being produced with the input of fewer hours of labor than previously required), that prices drop by a magnitude greater than the amount of inflation in the money supply created by the Central Banks as described in A. above = Inflation gone!

Which one do you think is most likely to happen and to have long lasting effects, A or B above?

While we can never be certain of what the future will hold, we can allocate our risk capital according to the probabilities as we see them. For example, if you think that A above is 50% likely and that B above is also 50% likely, then you may wish invest 50% of your risk capital in BTC, and the other 50% in the Nasdaq 100 index.

For purposes of bringing this article to a conclusion, it would seem to me, at least at this point in time, that A above, is more likely to drive long-term future inflation, than B. above.

If that view is correct, then we would be best served to make sure that we have significant exposure to the world’s first and only asset of value that cannot be inflated away.

That way, as the value of our fiat currencies is nearly inevitably inflated away, the price of BTC must rise to account for the increasing supply of fiat competing to buy BTC.

So bottom line: to the extent that you are confident that Central Banks will continue to create inflation via the slow destruction of the value of fiat (at least 2% per year not including wars and emergencies) . . .

Then to that same extent you should be confident that BTC is your best protection and defense against that inflation, and also perhaps your best opportunity as it is boosted by becoming increasingly adopted by others.

BUY now and HODL!

That is all for now . . .

Buckle up and enjoy the ride!

All the best,

Garry

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