Working Backwards to Find Bitcoin’s Ultimate Target Price This Halving Cycle

In my post, Making Money Using Bitcoin Halving Cycles, I analyzed pricing targets for Bitcoin based on its historical price movements during Bitcoin’s halving cycles. We are in the midst of the third Bitcoin halving cycle and the ultimate question is what will happen next for Bitcoin’s price? In my post Bitcoin: When to Cash Out or Crash Out, I mentioned some possible extension targets (such as $57k which it ran to quickly) but ultimately advised one to de-risk a bit on Bitcoin since it was getting so high in price that there was more risk at that point (which it preceded to dip about 25% in this most recent dip from $58k to $43k where it appears the price will hold for now).

As we get closer to the end of this halving cycle (which at the 12 month mark is May 2021 or 18 month mark is November 2021), it’s time to work on the “end game” for this cycle. One major important stat we should know about the Bitcoin halving cycle is:

During each of the last two halving cycles, Bitcoin lost 80–83% of its value from it’s halving cycle HIGH to the post-halving cycle LOW (as seen below)

Looking at the past two halving cycle lows, we see that the pre-cycle low to post-cycle low in 2012 increased by a factor of 21.427x (from $10.35 to $221.77) and in 2016 increased by a factor of…