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Some perspective on the 2024 & 2025 Crypto Bull Market
It is no secret I am ultra bullish this cycle, yet not in a frivolous way. I base my hypothesis on data, and a great deal of experience and research over the past 4+ years.
Contrary to popular opinion, it has long been my belief that this crypto cycle will be an extended one with a record amount of capital inflow. The early price increases, particularly in Bitcoin, gave rise to the sentiment that we were experiencing a stunted and left-shifted cycle. In typical short-sighted crypto frenzy, crypto twitter proclaimed the end of bull cycles, diminishing returns, shortened cycles and all kinds of peak bearish sentiment.
As we trudge through the fifth month of price chop and a resurgent bearish sentiment, all signs point increasingly that we are poised at the very final stages of the accumulation phase, and ready to blast off into the parabolic portion of the bull run.
2020 vs 2024: Striking Similarities
I first began my journey into crypto in May of 2020. The halving had just occurred, and prices remained within a fairly tight range for BTC between $9K and $9.5K and ETH from $200-$250, and sentiment was very much as it is now: a chorus of boredom-induced shrieks that the bull run was over.
By late July and early August of 2020, we had a rally in Altcoins that no one believed in, even as new Altcoins did 4x, 5x and even 10X returns within weeks. I recall it vividly, searching Coingecko for Alts that had not yet doubled in price had become a task. Every Youtuber was shilling their latest 5x or 10x altcoin, and everyone on the sidelines was as bitter as if we were in the dregs of the bear market. It was the very definition of a hated rally, even as we now refer to it as the “DeFi Summer”.
The alt-season was explosive, but short lived. It was followed by a jump in BTC from roughly $9K to $12K in the space of week. Two months later, starting in mid October of 2020, BTC then did a 2.6X to roughly $42K in less than 3 months.
We are now approaching a perfect setup for a hated rally. Increasingly large numbers of bear posters and doom posters, lots of cash on the sidelines, lettuce hands long since shaken out or waiting to re-enter at lower prices, TA gurus drawing squiggles and calling for breakdowns and bear trends and lord knows what else. All while fundamentals and macro tailwinds are the best they have been in crypto history. Hope your bags are packed.
What does all this mean for 2024?
Covid crash aside, Bitcoin is tracking 2020 post-halving almost identically. I believe it would also have tracked pre-halving if the Covid crash had not interrupted the cycle.
Going forward, if BTC continues to track similar to its 2020 trajectory, we can expect an Alt-season and subsequent BTC price run-up imminently. I believe that by the end of July, we see the first signs of an Altcoin season that will finally start to shift the market sentiment into true bull territory.
A 21% rise in BTC would see us approach the ATH set earlier this year, in the $74K range. My expectation is that we see a quick rise to this level over the coming 4–8 weeks, and a grind upwards towards $90–95K by year end (up slightly from previous projections). The ETH ETFs are set to go live this month, and the long term impact they will have on the crypto markets has been hugely underestimated. ETH should follow Bitcoin’s path with a degree of amplification from the ETF inflows, targeting roughly $7,500 — $8,500 by year end.
Conclusion:
Having diamond hands in crypto is never easy. If it were, it would not be so lucrative. It is precisely because it is so difficult; that it requires deep conviction, emotional control, and the general ability to take a financial punch in the noggin … that it can be so financially rewarding to do so.
The vast majority in crypto end up losing money as they fall victim to their emotions. Chasing pumps and buying tops, selling dumps and succumbing to FUD, getting greedy and leveraging an otherwise great trade, buying microcap memes to chase the overnight $50 to $1M illusion.
Stay patient, buy and sell smart, and don’t over trade. The win is yours to lose. As Raoul Pal aptly says: “Don’t F this up”
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)
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