Coronavirus: Why You Should Flatten the Curve?
Coronavirus has been the talk of the town over the past couple of months. And rightly so. The virus right now affects tens and thousands of people across the world has the potential to cripple humanity. As the time for containment is long gone, we can only try to reduce the spread and wait it out till we find a vaccination.
With the discovery of a vaccine expected in about a year or more; due to the need of human trial, reducing the spread is the best way for us to diminish its impact.
And as mentioned in The Washington Post through some excellent simulation, Flattening the Curve is the method to do it.
Since its mention, the phrase “Flattening the Curve” has been thrown around without any mercy. But what exactly is it? And how does it benefit?
The whole idea of flattening the curve is to buy us more time.
Let us assume there is a world-class hospital with state of the art infrastructure and highly qualified doctors, nurses and support staffs. The hospital has 100 beds with ventilators, which means it can treat 100 patients at a time.
An epidemic of a deadly virus breaks out.
Day 1
15 people are affected out of which 5 are critical cases who needs treatment. But the hospital has plenty of beds. So hey, no problem!
Day 2
The number of critical cases jumps to 15. That makes the total 20. No biggie.
Day 3
There are 40 new critical cases, making the total 60. That is a cause of concern. It leaves only 40 beds unoccupied at the hospital.
Day 4
The number of new critical cases jumps to 100. Now there is a total of 160 patients in urgent need of medical attention, but the hospital has only 100 beds.
And the misery continues overwhelmingly till most of the people in the locality is affected.
The hospital is in dire straits. A decision has to be made on who gets treatment and who does not. It leads to a situation where many patients who could have been treated ends up losing their lives.
And that is what happened in Italy. Doctors had to make the tough choice of choosing who to treat based on a patient’s chances of survival. Patients over the age of 80 and those with underlying preference got second preference.
It was a situation that could have been prevented if the spread of the virus was controlled. For example,
Day 1
We have 5 critical cases again.
Day 2
There are 5 more new cases which adds up to a total of 10.
Realising the possibility of an epidemic, the authorities take proper measures to control the outbreak.
Day 3
So, there are only 10 more new cases.
Day 4
Even though the cases have increased to 25, the hospital can afford to treat them all.
With the carrier affecting less people, the facility at the hospital would have had adequate time for the first batch of patients to recover before admitting new cases.
There is enough space for accommodation.
Flattening the curve is the need of the hour. And it can be done only if each one of us contribute towards it.
This is the time to make use of technology. This is the time to understand that the internet is a utility and not a luxury.
Controlling the spread is now in our hands.
We need to come together by distancing ourselves. We need to work hard by staying home. And we need to support each other by not showing up.
Let us do our bit and get it over with.
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