Mars One — An Ambitious Daydream?
A mission with no real substance.
Colonising Mars is one of the major goals of mankind. There have been many projects in the pipeline to complete this journey. Mars One is one such project. A project developed by Bas Lansdorp and Arno Wielders, Mars One proposes to have a human colony of 20 settlers on Mars by 2035.
An interesting prospect, isn’t it? Let us talk about it.
Who are behind it?
Mars One was founded by Dutch entrepreneur Bas Lansdorp and Arno Wielders in 2011. It is a company consisting of Mars One Foundation and Mars One Ventures, the non-profit and the for-profit companies respectively. The mission is managed by Mars One Foundation and the monetization rights are with Mars One ventures.
What are the objectives?
The main objective of Mars One is to colonise the Red Planet by 2040. Subsequently, it has minor objectives such as the launch of communication satellites, the collection of soil samples, use of natural resources of Mars, and to develop a habitat for the travellers before they reach the planet.
Sounds good! 🙂👍
“Mars One has the power to show people around the globe what is possible if we just all work on one goal. No human has left Earth’s orbit since 1972 and no one ever ploughed beyond the moon into deep space. It’s finally time to inspire the world and make the next giant leap for mankind.” — Nico Marquardt
How are they going to do it?
It is a one-way mission. The crew will establish a permanent settlement on Mars. There are no plans to bring them back. This would reduce the expense by a great margin. The project is set to reach its goal with a budget which is far lower than most of the others. And that is the selling point of Mars One.
Two things to note about the project are:
- No scientific breakthrough: Their website states that technology needed to complete the mission would not differ much from the existing technologies. The hardware is in the development process. But they claim the technology already exists and needs only a few tweaks. What? Really? 😕
- Hardware supply: It is stated they would not be designing or manufacturing the hardware for the mission. The hardware will be acquired from third party suppliers. They have conducted studies with aerospace companies and have planned their timeline according to it.
The mission is at its concept stage. The requirements for the missions are identified and discussed among the team. This stage details the step by step development of the mission. The estimated cost, the process of funding, selection of crew members, estimated timeline, finding and solving problems, and ways to acquire necessary resources are detailed in this stage.
The second stage involves the developing these designs. It gives emphasis in taking the crew to Mars safely. The second stage paves the way to lead the mission to the final two stages. The final two stages involve manufacturing the designs, testing for quality, and finally, the launch to Mars.
Who will be going to Mars?
The selection programme for Mars One mission started in 2013. The candidates had to submit an application. The number of applications estimates to be around 200,000. Out of which 100 got shortlisted for further processing. The third phase which lasted for five days cut down the number to 40. From these 40, 24 will make the one-way trip.
Phase three comprise of tests to find the capabilities of the candidates. Most of these tests are like those conducted by NASA. The candidates will have to take part as a group of 10, adhering to the 50/50 gender ratio. It is the phase where the candidates meet each other for the first time. It is aimed at demonstrating decision making and other capabilities as a team. It is a continuous elimination process which would result in the selection of the final 40.
It will be further trimmed down to 24 over the course of training. And the final 24 will make it to the red planet. The final 24 will be divided into groups of 6. Out of these, one team will get the opportunity to go first to Mars. And Mars One has announced we will get to vote on choosing the team to go first.
As the event is part of mankind’s history, Mars One wants us to decide who should go first.
Pretty interesting. Isn’t it? Or stupid?
Timelines
Time is one of the enemies when it comes to projects of such proportion. Mars One has not been an exception. It has seen its fair share of timeline changes due to unforeseen circumstances.
Completed
2011: Mars One Foundation was founded. An outline of the mission was framed.
2013: The crew selection programme began worldwide. 100 candidates made eligible for the next phase.
Scheduled — Postponed timelines
All the incomplete milestones had been postponed by eight to nine years due to funding issues and slow progress.
2015 — 2017: Training began after developing the replica of the settlement site. Candidates pool reduced to 40. As of now, it has not been reduced.
2016 — 2024: A Mars Lander and the first communication satellite (ComSat) set to launch. This is to show the key technologies used for the mission. A contract signed with Lockheed Martin to develop the lander and satellite.
2018 — 2026: Launch of second ComSat to improve the communication. A rover will be launched to assess the location for settlement.
2020 — 2029: Launch of two more rovers. One with two living, two Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS), and two supply units. Six SpaceX Dragons would be launched simultaneously.
2021 — 2030: The rovers develop the settlement and make it operational. The ECLSS would have developed a survivable atmosphere for future use. 240 kg oxygen, 0.7 bar pressure, and 3000 litres of water would be produced and stored in the habitat.
2022 — 2031: The launch of the group of first four colonists in a concept version of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy.
2023 — 2032: The first colonists reach the surface of Mars on the Dragon capsules.
2024 — 2033: The second crew of four colonists depart for Mars.
2025 — 2034: The second crew reaches Mars.
2031 — 2040: Estimated to have 20 settlers on Mars.
Funding for the programme
Mars One Foundation is a not-for profit entity. So, Mars One Ventures holds the monetization rights when it comes to the mission. The funding structure is developed in such a way that both the entities benefit from it. Mars One Ventures pays Mars One Foundation for the exclusive monetization rights of the mission.
Mars One ventures would provide an initial funding of $6 million. They will also provide 5% on all gross turnover. Thus, the flow of funding to the Foundation depends on the revenue generated by the Ventures.
The mission progress will be documented and aired in the form of TV documentary series or online content. It would include the important aspects of the mission such as crew training, hardware development, mission launches and landings. This is to attract more supporters and donations for the successful completion of the mission.
So, the main sources of revenue generation are as follows:
- Broadcasting rights — As said, the mission documentary will be sold to different broadcasters to generate revenue.
- Intellectual property rights — The rights to the technologies developed for the programme will be with Mars One. The sale of these intellectual properties is expected to generate some revenue.
- Donations — Mars One claims that it receives donations from over 100 countries every month. It would not provide enough for the whole project. But does add a bit to the funding process.
- Merchandise — They are also working on merchandise and products related to Mars One for their supporters. It is expected to be another way of funding the programme.
The estimated budget for the project is $6 billion. The four means of revenue generation are said to help the project raise the fund.
Hmm… 🤔 😒
Is it a scam?
There is a theory which gained traction over the years. It states the Mars One mission is a scam. There are several claims to support this theory.
- First of all, no contracts have been signed with SpaceX. Mars One expects to use SpaceX Dragons and Falcon Heavy to make the trip to Mars. But both the companies have not reached a settlement regarding the same. As a matter of fact, Elon Musk went on to say Mars One has not even approached SpaceX.
- The official statement of Mars One states around 200,000 people applied for the mission. But it was later proved the true number of applicants were either 2,761 or 4,227. Mars One had to go ahead and acknowledge the issue publically. They confirmed the number of application to be 4,227. Why did they lie?
- And finally, one of the Mars One finalists announced the whole project to be a scam. As per an article published on Medium’s Matter, Dr Joseph Roche states the project has many flaws and the funding process is sketchy.
Conclusion
Mars One mission is ambitious. But it certainly has a lot of plot holes. From the objectives of the mission to the selection process, the technology used and the funding process, it all seems far fetched.
“People ask what will happen if Mars One fails. There will be Mars Two, Mars Three, there will be Gliese 581 One, Proxima Centauri b One etc. If a project opens the path for other projects, it means that it has already triumphed!” — Mehmet Murat ildan
The delay in the timeline, insufficient funding, and the basic direction it is heading makes me believe Mars One is just a mission on paper.
A mission with no real substance which is bound to fail.
But I hope they prove me wrong.
What do you think? Is Mars One going to succeed in putting people on Mars?
