Christmas 2019: Everyone got turkey prices wrong
Turkey prices have seen an exceptional season this year.
Up to two months ago, the foodservice industry was gearing up for extremely high prices on turkey products. There were talks of £5.70-£5.75 per kilo and restaurants had been advised to set aside a substantial budget to sustain this surge. Brexit’s stockpiling and sourcing from EU producers due to lack of South Americans birds were the two main factors in a spike of turkey prices. Back in May-June this year they were as high as what we’re used to seeing closer to Christmas — an unprecedented trend.
The situation has completely changed around: in the last 3 weeks, we have seen demand for turkey drop by 12 to 15%, the exact opposite of what usually happens at this time of the year.
As Brexit is delayed yet again, contingency stock can be released and moved from frozen to chilled positions, ready to be used sooner rather than later.
What to expect next?
Prices now are at an average of £4.50, way below the expected £5.70-£5.75. They will remain stable for the next 8 to 10 days, and will then probably increase according to the usual seasonal trend, yet still far away from what had been forecasted.
Bad news for poultry farms and manufacturers as they won’t secure the revenue they were counting on and are in fact forced to lower their prices as demand stays low.
Good news instead for food buyers as they will not have to dish out as much cash as expected on their Christmas menu.
The positive turn might be short-lived though, as Brexit uncertainty is far from solved and will follow us into 2020.
Food trends for restaurant professionals
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