3 thoughts before the NBA Finals
1. The Thunder Missed History
Man how brutal was that? Oklahoma City, a team that for half a decade has featured not just two of the best players in the league, but arguably two of the top 30 players in league history, was playing at the highest level they’ve ever reached.
The perfect combination of playoff savvy, once in a generation talent, and Dion Waiters all led to the Thunder rolling over a 73 win behemoth.
Russell Westbrook was showing up Steph Curry and it was utterly delightful. Kevin Durant was the best player on the floor in a series featuring the best player in the world.
The Thunder kept punching in game five and if it wasn’t for a throwback performance from Andrew Bogut and just enough Curry magic the series would have ended there.
OKC had another shot to put the Warriors away up by 13 in Game 6, but they let the Warriors hang in it. With five minutes left up by seven, Durant and Westbrook blinked, Klay Thompson completed a freakish display of marksmanship and Andre Iguodala pulled the same trick on the other end. Game 7 was largely excellent, but came to an anticlimactic and inevitable ending.
Who knows if the Thunder ever get back to this point? Every single postseason in the NBA is essentially a weighted lottery and the Thunder due to reasons of their own creation and those birthed by lady luck have ended up on the wrong side of those coin tosses time and time again.
This series was just one more brutal example. For the most part OKC played like champions, but when the time came to make it official the Warriors snatched the crown.
2. Best Player In The World
Steph Curry will tell anyone within earshot that he doesn’t care who the best player in the world is. Don’t believe him.
It was flagrantly obvious throughout the first four games of the series that Westbrook had a stronger opinion. Much less than being the best player in the world, Russ thought Curry wasn’t even the best point guard in the series.
He seemed to relish going at the possibly hobbled Curry, relentlessly attacking and bulldozing whichever Warrior was dumb enough to get in his way and showing a sense of discipline on defense that’s been missing for years.
While the duo played to a spectacular draw in Game 5, the cage was already open. After a game clinching steal Curry started violently chest bumping while simultaneously holding off a charging Steven Adams.
The swagger, that otherworldly confidence that comes with being able to do things with a basketball the rest his peers can only dream of was officially back.
Curry’s never averse to celebration, but I’ve never seen anything like after Game 6 when he knew the series was for all intents and purposes over, or after Game 7 when Curry was fresh off flaying every defender Oklahoma City could throw at him like a young Ramsay Bolton.
Steph is a vicious competitor who absolutely gives a crap whether or not he’s regarded as the best player in the world and he’s going to get one more chance to prove it.
3. Who wins?
The Warriors are better than the suddenly peaking Cavaliers because they’re better than any team…well…ever. The Thunder exposed flaws nobody knew the Warriors had, but the Cavs don’t have the raw size or athleticism to do the same, and even if they did Golden State has evolved to a point it probably wouldn’t matter anyways.
The Cavs have given up a generous 103 points per 100 possessions this postseason a mark that’s going to be nearly impossible to overcome against a Warriors team that turns every mistake into a death sentence and refuses to allow the same to happen on the other end.
The series is ultimately going to boil down to the Cavaliers stars.
Kevin Love has been largely unplayable against the Fighting Kerr’s in the past, lacking the foot speed and defensive savvy to stand a chance defending the pick and roll. There might be ways to hide him in the regular season, but Golden State is going to seek him out time and time again, particularly when they go small.
Offensively he’s going to have to continue to show the versatility that’s defined his success through the first three rounds. He’s been a more than able outlet behind the arc shooting a scalding 45% from behind the arc against Toronto. If he can find similar success in the post it’ll force some painful decisions for the Warriors.
Kyrie Irving had the defensive game of his life in game one last year before busting his knee and missing the rest of the finals. If he can find that level again (kind of like Russ did, but with less upside) it’ll change the series.
I don’t totally buy that as a possibility. Success in the NBA is predicated on years and years of repetition both in what you practice and how you play. Freaks of nature like Westbrook can overcome that, but even he couldn’t keep it up over seven games. Irving will have some flashes, but ultimately if he’s going to make Steph sweat it’s going to be because he torches him on the other end.
The final and most important star is obviously The King himself. LeBron is quietly playing his best basketball since making his infamous trek back to Cleveland throwing up a ridiculously efficient 26–9–7 line with 62% shooting against the Raptors. He’s more rested than he’s ever been going into a Finals and while his lack of substantial decline has defied logic in the past it’s fair to say it’s now or never for LeBron to win a title by himself and just like last year that’s what it’s going to take.
Having a healthy Kyrie and Love and more shooting than ever off the bench undoubtedly raises the Cavaliers ceiling, but Golden State’s just as improved if not more so. Beyond that, post-Oklahoma City they’re more battle tested and more annoyingly confident than ever.
LeBron’s going to have to maintain his efficiency over a higher volume than ever for the Cavs to win. Heck even that might not be enough. Ultimately it comes down to the Warriors having more to counter what the Cavs do well than vice-versa. Cleveland’s got a shot, but this is and always has been Golden State and Steph Curry’s year.
