Night Rider
Why Boise State Broncos will be this year’s dark horse for the new College Football Playoff
“Uh-huh, Nope, NOOOO, SHUT YOUR FACE! You’re just another homer from Idaho turning a blind eye to reality. Seriously? How can Boise State be nationally relevant with an offense that has slowly become painfully average and a defense that was essentially a colander last year?”
Yes, you’re right. Boise State had a season last year that, to Boise standards, was sub-par. I’d agree that BSU fans have become used to being national darlings and not having to suffer for more than one loss—if that—in a season. Once again, I’d agree that if viewed with college football reality goggles, it will essentially be a team similar talent wise to the previous year. So how on earth could a team that last year went 8-5 competing in a mid-major conference make it into a top 4 spot? Well, let me tell you.
Next season BSU’s biggest strength with be it’s defense. BSU will contend with a d-line that is significantly thinned out, as well as a secondary that last season could be described as lack luster. Furthermore, this is the defense that was ranked 50th for points allowed.
“Uh, what?”
Boise head coach Bryan Harsin hired away from Texas A&M c0-defensive coordinator Marcel Yates (granted, Texas A&M was not known as a defensive juggernaut), who already appears to have improved the unit. In the BSU spring game, the defense appeared to be vastly better than the opposing side. Also delving into the fray for 2014 will more than likely be true freshman and 4-star recruit Dylan Sumner-Gardner. Playing at Saftey, this young man lit up the offense and really progressed throughout the spring. Furthermore, BSU brought in juco talent to help shore up a defensive line that will more than likely still stuggle.
That being said, BSU’s biggest weakness last year was it’s pass defense, which will be much improved this year. Yates is renown as a secondary coach, will have a freshman-sensation and return experience. Also, BSU will be switching back to a 4-2 from a 4-3. Schematically there is not much difference, but tactically this will exchange a nickleback or safety for a linebacker that will help bolster the pass defense.
The most important improvement to the defense will actually be the offense. BSU will ditch the no-huddle pistol that was the chagrin of Bronco Nation last year in favor of tight ends and a run game. While at times the offense may play at pace, the overall strategy should look Stanford-like by favoring a running game and tight ends. What this means to the defense is less time on the field and less plays to defend, which is very important to a mid-major team that will have less depth than it’s high-major counterparts.
“So what? They will still suck on offense.”
As previously mentioned, the offense should look vastly different as BSU moves away from the ultra-simple no-huddle pistol offense that was employed last year, instead favoring a multiple offense with different shifts, motions, and formations. Furthermore, they’re going to focus on the running game. Not that coach Petersen did not, but with Mike Sanford coming in from Stanford, I think the approach will be different enough that Jay Ajayi should have a terrific year if he can hang on to the ball and stay injury free. Not to mention, all that attention on the running game is going to open up play-action passing, something that Boise has excelled at in years past.
The tightends are going to have a party as well. Slowly coach Pete had moved away from using the tightends, which Harsin and Sanford both intend on using extensively, which will help Grant Hedrick in the passing game. Last season receivers were having a tough time getting open as it was essentially a group of slot receivers with a couple of “deep threats” that weren’t all that threatening. In the opener against Washington, receivers that did get open were often tackled right on the spot. With the tightends getting out on routes, yards-after-catch might not go up substantially, but it will allow BSU to get some matchup problems and maybe even open space deep for some of the smaller, quicker receivers as a saftey steps up to bracket a tightend over the middle.
“How are they going to make it with that schedule?”
It’s a great schedule to run the table; the schedule is weak enough that they should be able to scrap together at least seven wins, but does include non-conference games against teams that could be signature wins if they’re able to—you know—win. Ole Miss, BYU, and UCONN will all be challenges in their own way, and even a victory over UCONN could boost their national ranking. Also they have two conference games—San Diego and Utah State—that could be challenges, and those teams may even be ranked at that time. Athlon has Boise State finishing 11-2 and winning the Mountain West. So it wouldn’t be the wildest thing for BSU to get a couple of bounces and finish the season 13-0, similar to Notre Dame just two years ago.
Is it a long shot? Yes, that’s why they’re my dark horse and not contender. However, I don’t feel that it is really that unreasonable to think that they couldn’t insert themselves into the conversation for the playoff. They have many obstacles to overcome, but some of which can be schemed around by coaches that appear to be very solid. Having a run first offense complete with play actions, tightends, and shifts will not only help the offense to be productive, but also keep a defense that may get a little overwhelmed at times rested and off the field. Furthermore their schedule features several good-not-great teams that will boost their standings without providing as signficant challenge as an SEC schedule that eats it’s members alive. Boise may be down a little, but not out—yet.
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