Why Jabari Smith Jr.’s stock is jumpin’ out the gym
An overview of what makes the 18-year old Auburn forward so impressive.
The 2022 NBA Draft class is shaping up to be quite intriguing as the NCAA Tournament could result in quite a bit of movement in the rankings. There seems to be a clear-cut top two in most draft rankings Auburn freshman Jabari Smith Jr. and Gonzaga freshman Chet Holmgren.
If Holmgren represents the theoretical future of NBA basketball, then Jabari Smith Jr. very much represents the here and now.
The son of a four-year NBA pro, Smith has a wiry frame that is a bit easier to imagine with an additional layer of bulk as compared to Holmgren.
Smith is an incredibly tough to guard, big wing who pairs a smooth shooting stroke with an high “give-a-shit-level” on defense. It’s a rare package that you don’t often see in NBA prospects who specialize in volume scoring.
Through 31 games of regular season play, Smith averaged 17 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists and a combined 2.1 steals/blocks per game. His advanced numbers look even better. Smith was efficient despite a team-high 27.5% usage rate, possessed a 117.6 offensive rating and 90.1 defensive rating.
Translation: No player besides rim protector Walker Kessler can take as much credit for Auburn’s SEC-winning 2021–22 season.
Before I get into the many things that make Smith great, I will get the one major (and one minor) flaw out of the way. Despite being an almost unstoppable scorer at the NCAA level, Smith does not have NBA-level ball-handling at the moment.
This is fine because at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, there are plenty of actions to generate a clean look for Smith that don’t involve him dribbling a ton.
The other issue that is quite apparent in Smith’s game is his rebounding. It may be a stretch to call it an issue at this point but Smith’s rebounding numbers at 6-foot-10 are comparable to those of 6-foot-5 wing Johnny Davis of Wisconsin.
Smith’s rebounding woes can be mitigated at the NBA level by pairing him with certain frontcourt archetypes but it will certainly be something to monitor throughout the NCAA Tournament. Strong effort on boxouts will go a long way for Smith.
Now for the fun stuff!
Jabari Smith Jr. is very Jayson Tatum-like when you watch how he confidently knocks down the 3-pointer from deep — both off of screens and catch-and-shoots — with great fluidity and coordination despite his size. His scoring package is nearly complete before the age of 19.
Smith is an elite shooter from 3-point range (43%), a talented finisher (63% at the rim) and a solid midrange shooter (38%) considering his incredibly high volume.
Smith obviously will provide a ton of issues for most wings who can’t matchup with his height. But the true appeal of Smith as a prospect is the idea of him as an unstoppable small-ball center down the line, once he has put more muscle on his 6-foot-10 frame and put more effort into his rebounding.
In the pick-and-pop game, Smith is almost certain to generate a switch as defenses won’t want to give up an open 3-pointer. From here, Smith can work his way down to the mid- or low-post where his jump shot is an effective weapon against most players.
The matchup nightmare that Smith provides will be a huge advantage for the guards who play with him at the NBA level. Smith’s teammates will have the option of attacking a slower player switched onto them or feeding him in the post. Smith will, obviously, have to get stronger and improve his technique when it comes to sealing his defender off to establish position down low.
This will be a major key because once Smith is in an advantageous position in the post, the results are truly remarkable.
Smith is intriguing because we simply haven’t seen a prospect with his specific shot profile in awhile.
Per Hoop-Math.com, here is Smith’s shot selection broken down by percentage of attempts from each area:
14.6% of FGA at the rim
42% of FGA are midrange jump shots
43.5% of FGA are 3-pointers
Despite being a solid athlete at 6–foot-10, 220 lbs., Smith rarely looks to get to the basket. He is a great free throw shooter already (81%), so the next step in his offensive development will be getting his handle to a functional state where he can effectively attack off of closeouts and thusly generate more rim and free throw attempts.
The fact that Smith projects as an elite NBA forward once it all comes together makes him tough to pass up.
While Smith will certainly need a strong lead ball handler in the NBA to get going on offense, his defense will show up either way. Smith’s 13% rebound rate leaves a lot to be desired in that department. While he will surely have to become a slightly better rebounder, the fact that Smith projects as a switchable defender mitigates some of that concern.
On defense, Smith is a solid shot-blocker and he uses his length quite effectively to poke the ball free from opposing ball handlers.
He averages a combined 2.2 steals/blocks per game and has show the ability to switch onto quicker players often, which serves as important part of Auburn’s top-10 defense (8th in the nation per KenPom.com).
Smith tries like hell to slide his feet to keep up with players who are fleet of foot. And with a reported 7-foot-1 wingspan, even when he gets beat off the dribble he is able to get back into the picture and at least contest the shot. The clips below illustrate his quickness, length and the aforementioned “give a shit factor,” as you can see how pumped Jabari gets when making big defensive plays.
Ultimately, Jabari Smith Jr. has quite a bit to gain in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. While he and Gonzaga freshman Chet Holmgren seem to be the favorites to be the top NBA draft pick, there is far from a consensus at this point. Personally, I’ve leaned towards Holmgren because his incredible shot-blocking numbers and solid rebounding make me believe in him a bit more as a functional NBA center. But Smith’s picture perfect jump shot and NBA-pedigree gives him the look of a blue-chipper who we wonder years from now how they slipped past the top spot.
Team need will factor heavily into the №1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, perhaps more than it ever has before. And that is simply because in a class that seems to have quite a bit of parity, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith stand head and shoulders above the competition.
