2022 Colombian Election Digest I

The Colombian congressional and presidential campaign continues to heat up. The congressional elections and three presidential primaries are now less than three weeks away, on March 13!

To help you keep you abreast of the latest developments in the campaign, I’ll try to post a weekly digest covering the campaign and other political news from Colombia, from the past week. Please follow Colombian Politics and Elections to receive the latest updates!

Here are the latest updates from the campaign:

Six days, six debates

A grand total of six presidential debates between the candidates in the three coalitions took place between Feb. 15 and 20 on Caracol Radio/El País and Caracol TV/La Silla Vacía (one debate for each coalition on each media). Given the overload of debates, it’s unclear whether these will have any real impact on the race (especially since the Caracol Radio debates were 2 hours long…).

Here are the takeaways:

• Alex Char, candidate in the right-wing Equipo por Colombia coalition, actually showed up for one debate! Well, only because Caracol Radio allowed him to join via Zoom from Barranquilla, wearing his hat. He skipped the Caracol TV debate. His performance was underwhelming: it’s clear he has no real proposals or stance on issues besides his idea to replace the VAT with a lower consumption tax. He tried to discredit Aída Merlano’s accusations against him, referring to her as a fugitive (she is, but that’s not the point…).
• The right-wing coalition talks a lot about corruption, but is uncomfortable when Char is mentioned. With Char’s scandals, ‘innocent until proven guilty’ and generally backing up their colleague is their strategy.
• The right-wing coalition focuses a lot on Petro: everything is Petro’s fault, and Petro is bad/dangerous. Fico Gutiérrez offhandedly implied that Petro should be in jail for supporting the Venezuelan regime. Otherwise, they mostly agree on issues like security, and there is not a lot of substance.
• There was a bit more substance in the centrist Centro Esperanza. Alejandro Gaviria stood out from other candidates in the coalition with his more economically liberal views, and there was an interesting discussion between the candidates in the Caracol Radio debate about post-secondary education.
• As always with them, there were tense moments in the centrist coalition. In the Caracol TV debate, there were no fights but clear tensions, revolving around the ethics of receiving support from controversial traditional politicians (like Alejandro Gaviria has). Gaviria, on the receiving end, fired back and said that Fajardo has many open judicial investigations.
• Gustavo Petro is the predominant figure of the left-wing Pacto Histórico. The journalists know it, he knows it, his fellow candidates know it. He was the centre of attention, and the other candidates struggled to stand out.
• When asked about the business community’s fears about Petro/the Pacto’s economic model, Petro (and others) largely preferred to attack the media’s line of questioning or the old idea of castrochavismo rather than answer real questions about his economic views.
• Petro’s fellow candidates might not have been pleased when he was the only one among them when, during a rapid fire yes/no round of questions, he was the only one who didn’t say ‘yes’ to whether the runner-up in the Pacto primary should be the running-mate (he abstained). That was said to be the unwritten deal in the Pacto, but Petro is clearly not committing to that.
• All candidates in the Equipo por Colombia said that Iván Duque has been a good president. All of them except Peñalosa are still willing to ally with uribismo (Char was absent for both questions).
• All candidates in the Pacto said that Colombia is not a democracy. All candidates in the other two coalitions said that it is.

Poll: Pessimism abounds

The Feb. 2022 Invamer-Gallup poll, a regular poll carried out in five major cities (Bogotá, Cali, Medellín, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga), was released. The results show a deeply pessimistic country. Highlights:

• Only 9% feel that things are improving. 85% says things are worsening.
• Unemployment and the economy are the top issue (34%) followed by corruption (26%).
• Colombians are very dissatisfied with nearly every major issue: cost of living, corruption, security, the economy and the environment. On all of those issues, 80%+ say that things are worsening.
• President Iván Duque’s approval rating falls to 20% with 73% disapproving. These are lows unseen since Santos’ second term and Andrés Pastrana’s presidency.
• All big city mayors except Jaime Pumarejo (Barranquilla) have underwater approvals. Claudia López (Bogotá)’s approval rating falls to just 29%.

• As in the chart above, the only presidential candidates with overwater favourability are Petro (+2), Galán (+7) and Márquez (+8). The most unpopular candidate is Peñalosa (-30). Petro gained 8% in favourability since Dec. 2021. Char’s favourability dipped by 8 points but his unfavourable numbers did not move (-1).
• Álvaro Uribe remains unpopular with 21% favourable opinions and 67% unfavourable, similar to previous months.

Rodolfo Hernández’s ephemeral running-mate

The viral and enigmatic anti-corruption candidate Rodolfo Hernández had a running-mate… for four days. Paola Ochoa, an economic journalist (columnist for El Tiempo and commentator on Blu Radio), was announced as Rodolfo Hernández’s running-mate on February 14. On February 18, she withdrew her putative vice-presidential candidacy. The surprising choice and subsequent withdrawal of Rodolfo’s running-mate was a bizarre storyline which says a lot about his presidential candidacy.

Her vice-presidential candidacy was announced on Twitter on Monday February 14 by Blu Radio’s news director. The news took everyone by surprise, including Hernández’s own campaign, which learned about it on the news. The campaign confirmed it but did not release any official statement about it. It seems as if the decision was made impulsively by Hernández alone, without consulting even his closest advisers. Hernández has been looking for a running-mate for several months now, and he’s been turned down several times by businessmen and former senior public officials. With the deadline to register his candidacy coming up (he has until March 11 given that he’s not participating in any primary), Hernández is getting increasingly impatient and feels that he’s falling behind.

Paola Ochoa is an economic journalist who is an occasional columnist for El Tiempo and a commentator on Blu Radio. She is known for her controversial opinions on various topics: saying that breastfeeding is something for ‘underdeveloped countries’, asking if she could pay a ‘premium’ to make sure her Rappi food delivery driver is vaccinated, opposing the prioritization of seniors for COVID-19 vaccines, suggesting that the government should shut down the internet during last year’s protests or other comments which reveal her lack of sensitivity to issues like structural racism. Rodolfo Hernández shares her penchant for controversial opinions, but was perhaps taken aback by the largely negative reactions to her selection as running-mate. It’s also unclear what she brought to the campaign: certainly her image as a wealthy bogotana disconnected from reality goes against Rodolfo Hernández’s attempt to make himself the candidate of the people.

In the end, Paola Ochoa withdrew herself on Friday February 18, and this time it was confirmed by the campaign in a statement. Her rapid withdrawal is for ‘family reasons’ — the revelation of the marital crisis she’s going through with her husband (the CEO of semi-public Grupo Energía Bogotá and former director of the tax and customs agency DIAN).

For Hernández, the search for a running-mate continues while the clock continues ticking. The bizarre story of his ephemeral running-mate shows how his caprices and impulsive temperament are affecting his presidential campaign. It’s another weakness which suggests that his current moment in the polls might be short lived…

A new dispute in the centre: Amaya vs. Galán

The centrist coalition Centro Esperanza has gone through many crises and internal conflicts. Just as the latest conflict was behind them, a new one has come up: this time between presidential pre-candidates Carlos Amaya and Juan Manuel Galán.

On Feb. 13, Galán sought ‘clarifications’ from Amaya about potential bureaucratic ‘quotas’ of his in Bogotá mayor Claudia López’s administration. As La Silla Vacía explained, Amaya was the Green governor of Boyacá between 2016 and 2019 and, in that capacity, built his own political structure/machine (whose strength was visible in the 2018 congressional elections in Boyacá). One of Amaya’s allies succeeded him as governor in 2019. The new governor continued to invite Amaya to inaugurate new infrastructure projects throughout 2020 and several of Amaya’s allies continued to work in the new administration after 2019 (some resigned to run for office in 2022 or help Amaya’s campaign). The controversy raised by Galán alleges that there is a revolving door between Boyacá and Green mayor Claudia López’s administration in Bogotá. In 2020, Amaya received a four month contract from the Bogotá mayor’s office worth 90 million pesos (~$23,000), and several of his allies have received jobs or contracts in Bogotá.

The Amaya/Galán dispute played out for several days. Amaya said that some of Galán’s claims were ‘fake news’, and that he couldn’t prevent his friends and allies from working in politics (and that they were all qualified professionals). Galán reiterated that it was necessary to have a transparent conversation about the issues he raised, because the centrist coalition can’t have a ‘pact of silence’ about uncomfortable topics (like the right-wing coalition allegedly has about Alex Char’s scandals). Amaya and his allies also fired back, claiming that the Galán family has lived off public office for two decades.

Amaya and Galán appeared to agree to an uncomfortable ceasefire or truce in the Caracol Radio debate. It’s not clear if either of them will benefit from this clash (La Silla says that it learned that Amaya was planning to drop out, but after the dispute is resolved to go until the very end), or whether it will just be another internal dispute that hurts the centrist coalition’s image (again). In any case, behind the Amaya/Galán dispute is a real fight for Bogotá — between the Greens and Galán’s Nuevo Liberalismo. Don’t forget that Carlos Fernando Galán finished second in the 2019 election to Claudia López (and will probably run again in 2023…), and 2019 left open wounds between the Galán family and the Greens. López is increasingly unpopular, and Galán wants to go after votes in Bogotá (both in March and in 2023) by attacking her administration.

Piedad Córdoba — The FARC’s alias Teodora?

Piedad Córdoba is a veteran left-wing politician (Liberal senator between 1994 and 2010) seeking a political comeback this year with the Pacto Histórico (she is eighth on the coalition’s closed list for Senate). She faces new accusations concerning the actual extent of her ties with the old FARC guerrilla and overreaching in her role as mediator in ‘humanitarian exchange’ talks for the release of FARC hostages in 2007. Understanding the current scandal requires us to go back to 2007…

Córdoba is no stranger to controversy and difficulties: she was one of the most vocal opponents of Álvaro Uribe during his presidency (2002–2010) and she was close to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, working with him in pushing for a negotiated solution to the armed conflict and for the release of hostages held by the FARC. In August 2007, Uribe appointed Córdoba as a mediator in a humanitarian exchange, an effort to obtain the release of some 50 hostages held by the FARC in exchange for the release of imprisoned guerrillas, in collaboration with Hugo Chávez, and met with senior FARC commanders in Caracas. They did obtain the release of some hostages, like Ingrid Betancourt’s 2002 running-mate Clara Rojas. However, Uribe ended the mediation in November 2007.

In March 2008, a highly controversial cross-border Colombian military raid in Ecuador killed Raúl Reyes, a senior commander of the FARC. The Colombian military seized Reyes’ computers and files, a treasure trove of information about the guerrilla’s foreign relations, arms trafficking, ties to Chávez and Rafael Correa as well as their connections with several Colombian politicians. Several emails referred to one alias ‘Teodora de Bolívar’, presumed to be Piedad Córdoba. In September 2010, Córdoba was removed and disqualified from office for 18 years by ultra-conservative Inspector General Alejandro Ordóñez, who ruled based on evidence obtained from the Reyes computers that she had collaborated with and promoted the FARC. Ordóñez’s decision was very controversial — not only for targeting a left-wing political opponent, but also because there are real doubts about the evidence.

In 2011, the Supreme Court said that the evidence from the FARC files were inadmissible because the files were obtained by the army on foreign soil, the chain of custody was broken (the military held and reviewed the files for three days without being authorized to do so before turning it over to the criminal investigations division of the Fiscalía) and because the incriminating emails were stored in a Word document. In 2008, Interpol said that while there was no evidence that the files were tampered with, for three days access to the data did not conform to international standards. With the court’s precedent, in 2016 the Council of State overturned Córdoba’s sanction and returned her political rights. The Council of State considered Ordóñez’s arguments to be based on inferences and conjectures, and ordered the Procuraduría to pay her damages.

The new accusations against her were revealed by Noticias Caracol, and come from a former adviser, Andrés Vásquez.

Here are the accusations against her, which remain unproven allegations for now:

• She is indeed alias Teodora of the FARC.
• She manipulated the release of FARC hostages in coordination with the FARC Secretariat, advising them to speed up or delay their hostage to score political points for both Chávez and Córdoba. She also gave suggestions to the guerrilla in how to present proof of life photos of hostages. Most explosively, she is alleged to have urged the FARC to delay Ingrid Betancourt’s release, given that her dual nationality (French) put more pressure on Uribe to negotiate with the FARC, through the French government. She is also said to have questioned Betancourt’s health problems while in captivity, claiming that she had always been thin.
• She acted as agent of Chávez’s government and made a list of Colombian businessmen close to uribismo to whom Venezuela owed money so that they wouldn’t be paid.
• She received money from Alex Saab, a Colombian businessman who did business with Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. Saab was arrested in Cape Verde in 2020 and extradited to the US in 2021, facing eight counts of money laundering. In January 2022, a report from the Ecuadorian National Assembly accused her of participating in Saab’s corruption schemes with the Venezuelan government.

These are all very serious allegations, and come just weeks after her brother was arrested on drug trafficking charges (allegedly in collusion with FARC dissidents) with an extradition request from the Southern District of New York. The allegations against her will be examined by the Supreme Court, which has called Álvaro Uribe and Ingrid Betancourt to testify. The case against her in the Supreme Court has been open for nearly 14 years and she was never formally accused, but was recently revived with the Ecuadorian report implicating her with Saab.

The accusations create an awkward and uncomfortable issue for the Pacto, just like Alex Char’s scandals have become an uncomfortable topic for his colleagues in the right-wing coalition. Gustavo Petro has suggested that Córdoba is being attacked because she’s returned to public life and has defended her work in 2007, saying it saved lives. He has also said that the accusations should be examined by the JEP rather than the Supreme Court. Others in the Pacto have said that the claims against Córdoba are a “smokescreen” to distract attention from Char’s scandals. On the other hand, Francia Márquez only said that Córdoba would have to defend herself and that she wasn’t in a position to judge Córdoba’s actions.

The scandal hits at a delicate topic for the left (ties to chavismo) and opens it up to attacks by the right, which hasn’t missed an opportunity to attack the left for their “double standard” in attacking Char but keeping quiet about Córdoba. Ingrid Betancourt, now a presidential candidate, said that Piedad Córdoba “deliberately delayed my liberation” and said she was part of the “corrupt political class that tried to remove me from politics”. In theory, with both the left and right dealin with demons from within, this should open an opportunity for the Centro Esperanza, but they’re too busy squabbling amongst themselves…

Other news

• Colombia Justa Libres (CJL)’s John Milton Rodríguez’s presidential candidacy is fatally wounded after the CNE annulled the results of the Nov. 2021 convention which nominated him as the Christian right party’s candidate. The convention and his candidacy were challenged by a dissident faction within CJL. Rodríguez has insisted he will not give up and will fight to save his candidacy through legal recourses.
• Centro Esperanza pre-candidate Alejandro Gaviria continued meeting with traditional politicians, which continued to upset his colleagues in the coalition. He reportedly met with former Vice President Germán Vargas Lleras and former President César Gaviria, perhaps reconciling with the latter after a nasty falling-out last fall. He is also reported to have received the support of Jorge Emilio Rey, former governor of Cundinamarca (2016–2019).
• Ingrid Betancourt caused controversy by saying las mujeres se hacen violar (women get raped) during a debate because, in Spanish, the verb form ‘hacerse’ implies that a person willingly allows something to be done (eg: hacerse un tatuaje — to get a tattoo), so she was accused of blaming the victim. She later apologized and explained that she got mixed up due to a false friend with French (the verb se faire has a passive sense). But that explanation will just reinforce perceptions that she’s a disconnected ‘foreigner’ who has lived too long in France…
• Ingrid Betancourt presented her platform proposals on her key issue, corruption. She proposes asset recovery from corruption and drug trafficking, compensating the victims of corruption and creating a special tribunal to investigate senior officials. La Silla Vacía explains why these proposals are unacheivable and/or uninnovative.
• Vichada ¿eso qué es?: Rodolfo Hernández doesn’t know what the department of Vichada is:

Thanks for reading the first 2022 Colombian Election Digest. See you next week!