COVID19 — Letter to Family & friends

Dear family and close friends,

THE COVID -19 pandemic is unfortunately here and is going to be a challenge to everyone on us, unlike ever experienced in our lifetime.

For the past few days — I have been ever more involved in multiple meeting and conversation with various parts of the health institution and physician experts regarding the COVID 19 situation, specifically about this pandemic and what we need to do.

It greatly burdens my heart to hear many that think this is “not a big deal”, or that everything is over exaggerated. Please know this is far from wrong. The sizable numbers you are seeing (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) are actually underestimated, especially in the US, as these are only tested cases. This is due to the limited number of testing available — although as a whole the system is trying to test as much as possible.

Earlier this week, I talk to a colleague from my medical college — he is presently working in Italy and he was in tears stating how he knows he has to soon make decisions on who they need to pull the plug on in larger scales. Just typing that sentence for me was heart wrenching. The health care worker in that country are living a nightmare — and what is terrifyingly scary is, that this soon can hit close to home, if we all don’t continue to be aggressive on how we combat this.

What can be possible outcomes: -

In the USA, we have three pathways for COVID-19:

1. The country views this challenge like WWI and WWII, almost everyone does the right things, and we will be harmed but overall be okay.

2. Many people do the right things, and many don’t, and we will have the same struggles that Italy is enduring.

3. People blow this disease off as no big deal, and our health care system (and life as we know it) will be crippled.

You have all probably seen the concept of “flatten the curve.” If we fail to flatten the curve, and we fail to eliminate the portion of red above that line (image below), there will be dire consequences:

1. More people, including some of our friends and family, will die.

2. Health care workers are at higher risk of dying.

3. All health care workers will have to witness the needless deaths of patients who could have survived.

Many have inquired of me of this flatten the curve, and stated that looking at this graph — it does not seem to be that bad. One thing to keep in mind is that — as these are predictive models, it is hard to put definite numbers. However, a graph does not reflect what reality is — based on the paper from the Imperial College London have modeled some numbers (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf). Based on this model, not to raise panic or anxiousness — they had project if nothing is done close to 2.2 million people can die in US alone. So that first part of the graph, if we do nothing about it can impact a lot of people and a sad outcome of around 2.2 million deaths in US.

So, what can each one of us do about this –

In the present absence of vaccines and anti-viral treatment, our best option to combat flattening the curve is something called NPI or non-pharmaceutical interventions.

(Also, to note -the med / pharma industry is working hard to change this position https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/ so let’s stay positive.)

My recommendations for NPIs (following reputed medical guidelines are as follows):-

1. Social distancing — this is not the easiest to do, but based on all models projected and material shared in this email — its remains the best option to combat this situations.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/what-is-social-distancing/

2. Excellent hygiene — Washing hands with soap and water, and avoiding touching your face remains the best form of combating the virus.

3. Conscious of mental status — nothing can repress more your health than anxiety, stress, depression etc. Therefore, it remains important that we find ways to fight this. Find accountability partners, and spend time to use technology to talk with others about your feeling and emotions related to what you are experiencing.

4. Keeping your immune system up — Proper nutrition, Sleep, keeping up with your multivitamins (Vitamin C and Vitamin D).

Great article written by a colleague of mine from medical college. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/boosting-immunity-pandemic-world-fighting-covid-19-part-yvonne-1c/?trackingId=7HMxThneTpKs8cWnKQzFQw%3D%3D

During this very challenging time, the key remains on how better we can be a community (even with present huddles such as social distancing), this being one of the key reasons the human species stands out. Social distancing is very different from social isolation, and we need to learn how to be community even with the need of physical distance. We have survived times by how we learn to adapt and survive; how we encourage each other and develop hope, so let us continue to keep pushing forward, as working together gives augmentation to light at the end of this tunnel.

I think as a community, we need to change the conversation from “how inconvenient to me” to “who are the people who are/ will suffer the most — and how can we help/serve them”. Moving our thought process more to a community service mindset. Individually we might find it hard to stand but as a community we are stronger equipped to

For me — my sincere request is — “imagine if you had a loved one at risk of demise itself, won’t we do everything possible to prevent that, so if this rather cumbersome and challenging actions can save any lives (even one) — isn’t it worth it.”

Again this is not to raise anxiety or panic, but rather lets be vigilant and do our part is combating this challenging situation.

Sincerely with love and blessing,

Yours truly.

Vino Raj.