In a head-to-head with Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg will win.
Donald Trump only beat Hillary Clinton by less than 1% in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (keep in mind too Hillary Clinton was being investigated by the FBI just a few days prior and has to go down as one of the most unlikable major party candidates in political history).
Donald Trump also benefited from being the “change” candidate, but this time around, Michael Bloomberg would out “change” Donald Trump in more than one way.
And then the cherry-on-top is that Donald Trump was given a conservative House, Senate, and Court, but his biggest accomplishment was a major tax cut for the wealthy on the back of a ballooning national debt. Many centrist-conservatives such as myself are looking for an escape cord to pull and Michael Bloomberg may just be that.
To win the Democratic Nomination, Michael Bloomberg is using a unique strategy that goes against political campaigning 101…
- Enter late: Bloomberg is the 1st presidential candidate in modern history to not be on the ballot in the early states.
- Air game: By only focusing on Super Tuesday, Michael Bloomberg has effectively created a “National Primary.” People complain about America’s electoral system or primary system because they feel its “undemocratic”, but Michael Bloomberg’s candidacy should serve as an example to you for why electing a president purely through “popular vote” is a bad idea because it reduces the need for a ground game or what we call “retail politics”, i.e. backslapping and getting face-to-face with voters. The race becomes about money! Who can buy the most ads and get on TV. This is what is called “media politics” or the air game. An effective election system balances the two, but Bloomberg is going all-in on the latter.
- Debates: Michael Bloomberg wasn’t in the early debates nor will he be in the December debate. Traditionally, when a Democratic candidate doesn’t qualify for a debate they usually drop out, but Bloomberg welcomes the idea of not having to debate because he knows he isn’t the most charismatic candidate. He also doesn’t need the national publicity from debating nor does he need to fundraise off debate soundbites.
Is this a smart strategy?
I’d say it’s the best possible strategy Michael Bloomberg could have taken.
I might go so far as to say genius!
Had he entered the race when everyone else did then he would’ve gotten ignored by the new shiny candidates like Beto or by the neverending list of free-giveaways being offered by the far-left.
He also would have had to compete in the debates where Bernie and Warren’s fiery delivery would have sucked up the national attention.
Socialism is sweet but leaves a bad aftertaste.
There are four primaries before Super Tuesday: Iowa (caucus), New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina.
Pete is leading in Iowa.
Bernie is leading in New Hampshire.
Biden is leading in Nevada and South Carolina.
If that sort of split occurs going into Super Tuesday then Michael Bloomberg has a shot, but better yet for Bloomberg is if Bernie or Warren win at least 3 out of the 4 primaries because then a lot of centrist Democrats will hit the PANIC! button.
At that point, it’ll be obvious that Biden and Pete can’t get the job done and so since they had their shot, but failed, then a lot of centrist Democrats would start to unite around Bloomberg as their Plan B-loomberg.
This strategy wouldn’t have worked as well in the past where the front-runner would have all but secured the nomination by Super Tuesday, but with such a crowded field this time around one could afford to take a more looming approach.
11 of the 14 Super Tuesday states also have some version of an open primary, which means Republicans and independents could vote, i.e. the exact sort of voters that would prefer a moderate over a progressive.
A final factor to consider is once Super Tuesday hits Bloomberg will have all the money to run the table.
This reminds me of when I was playing the board game Risk™ with my cousins…
While my cousin Elena and I were exhausting all our resources fighting each other for the continent of Australia, my other cousin Alex was conquering the rest of the globe relatively unimpeded. By the time I finally won Australia, Alex had all the resources to then defeat me in a few turns.
Mayor Bloomberg may turn out to be the cousin Alex of the Democratic nomination.