The Changing States of Our Plates
The “What do you want to order for dinner?” argument among loved ones. The bountiful-menu-induced choice paralysis. The hunger-fueled shopping trip that results in a bizarre grocery cart cornucopia. All of these are signals that we have more food choices than ever before — so, what exactly are we choosing to eat, then?
The Customer is Always Right
Compass Group has a large footprint in the food & hospitality industry that covers all North American regions, market verticals, and B2C endpoints. This provides us (the CDL Data Intelligence team) with a unique advantage when understanding customer behavior and motivations to discover new opportunities.
The numbers can provide curated insight into regional preferences, which include but are certainly not limited to: the proliferation of brands, menu items, ingredients, and broader-scale movements.
By highlighting impactful trends and insights, the goal is to improve the customer experience as well as drive innovation in our industry. For example, we can leverage the data to forecast the spread of trends and ingredients, as well as provide menu engineering recommendations to chefs. But ultimately, it’s about keeping our consumers satisfied and making sure we’re well ahead of the curve.
Where Trends Come From
In the past, we’ve noticed some interesting patterns that revealed intriguing (and now relatively well-recognized) consumer trends. Typically stemming from California’s major cities, healthy ingredients such as kale, soy, and quinoa, will see a spread into metropolitan areas — such as NYC — within a few months, and finally become fairly ubiquitous throughout North America within the year. In contrast, non-health oriented trends, such as new soda and chip flavors, follow a different trajectory with their start usually coming from the mid-west.
With all of this in mind, we’re currently tracking the trajectory of another rising star: plant-based proteins.
Some Possible Explanations
As demonstrated through our own data analysis*, we’ve noticed that people are still ordering a fairly large amount of meat. However, while alternative meat itself currently has the smallest slice in the category’s hypothetical pot pie, it’s showing the fastest rate of growth. Why is this happening now, when meat substitutes have been the butt of jokes on TV for over 20 years? One possibility is that, presently, popular brands such as Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods have a target beyond vegans and vegetarians: meat-eaters. People who enjoy eating meat don’t want to stop doing so but are becoming increasingly interested in eating fewer animal products overall.
It’s less about changing the consumer, and more about supporting them where they are. If someone has a craving for wings or a burger but is open to substituting the meat with a protein that tastes and feels like the real thing, they can eat what they want with a side of several reasons to feel good about themselves. Within Compass-Served Cafes, diners with a preference for alternative meats tend to gravitate toward fresh produce over canned or frozen, order salads as entrees and pick sparkling water and iced coffee as their beverages of choice. This suggests a few things: the crowds may skew younger, they may be health-conscious, and they likely enjoy keeping up with trends.
Not All Alternative Meats Are Made Equal
All that being said, our data shows that* 90% of fast-growing alternative meat brands are plant-based, whereas soy-based options are declining in popularity.
We also can’t say, in terms of people’s diets, whether plant-based proteins are a replacement or an add-on. However, we’ve noted some possible reasons for these changes in consumer behavior — plant-based products come from more familiar sources such as legumes, they’re nutrient-dense while being low in fat and calories, and they’re sustainable. According to the Mintel 2019 report on Global Food and Drink Trends: “53% of US consumers agree that plant-based foods are better for the environment than animal-based options.”
It’s less about changing the consumer, and more about supporting them where they are.
Where Do We Go from Here?
Alongside Compass, we’ll be continuing to keep our proverbial thumbs on the pulse to ensure that our customers are always getting the best experience possible. In this case, we’re taking a quantitative approach to do so in a very qualitative field that is hospitality.
It’s important to have a strategy that is specific to customer needs, and the nuances that go along with that — be it an influx of flexitarian diners, influential on-campus vegans, or simply a growing number of folks that want to give the Earth a hand.
Footnote: Trends provided with Compass data as of August 2019
Written by: Jasmine Jia & Sravya Atluri
