Water is no longer an abundant resource of the beautiful Blue Planet. Water has become a scarcity in many places, and the complexity of addressing this problem from all angles, can no longer be managed locally. Water supply and management are linked to growth, to our economy, to world stability, and to life.

It was a beautiful sunny Saturday in Cambridge, and the Strata Center was buzzing with Ph.D students, researchers, hydrologists, engineers and policy influencers. They were all talking about water, although water was available: there was lemonade and soda, coffee and delicious cookies; the washrooms were properly clean, and the piping system serving the building seemed to be just fine.

In stark contrast, the large posters on the walls and the topics brought into discussion by this MIT / TUFTS / World Bank think-thank told a very different story. A story of complex water challenges, whose entirety is hidden amongst engineering challenges, politico-economic interests and water ownership rights, and in the ever-increasing water infrastructure. A story skewed by socio-economic factors driving demand, difficult to understand given insufficient data availability in poor countries.

“I am pleased to see complexity science being added to this discussion.” —mentions Prof. Bar-Yam, before starting his keynote.

Traditional engineering assumes there’s a well defined set of things one needs to know, and everything else one doesn’t need to know to solve a specific problem. That’s true, to a certain extent, but in today’s reality, problems of water systems cross boundaries, disciplines and methodologies.

The levels of detail required and dynamics of change are no longer apparent, therefore one needs to understand the interdependencies between different factors, to be able to implement significant changes without effects that were not intended. It is almost impossible to answer the question “What matters in studying complex water challenges?” One needs to factor in unpredictable factors, like changing country boundaries, social unrest, as well as imprecise or non-existent local measurement tools.

In addressing complex water problems we are facing a transition where the causes and effects are diverse, the system is not defined completely by traditional concepts, and it’s hard to know what dynamics need to be included in the analysis in the first place.

The engineering approach continues to be essential, but first the mathematical statement of the problem needs to be clarified.

“There’s a need for a meta process which can clearly determine a starting point for the analysis.” — Bar-Yam

There are two essential approaches that complex systems science provides for the solution of water problems. The first is multiscale analysis that identifies the aspects of the system that must be included in equations, i.e. what is important. This enables us to determine the vulnerabilities and opportunities that are present and the implications of policy decisions. Significantly, this can include socio-economic dynamics.

The second is the need for changing the approach to engagement with interested parties, i.e. stakeholders. Traditional frameworks that involve how power is concentrated or shared, consensus building, and meetings to share information, are not enough. What is needed is developing the capacity of groups to collectively make effective decisions. This distributed decision making process requires strategies to make them effective as a group. Ultimately, the collective decision making has to engage with governance processes that are and increasingly will shift power from nations to either global or local authorities.

Many thanks for the excellent organization of the MIT Water workshop to: Michal, Anisha, Rachel, George, Shafik and to Winston Yu for including complexity science concepts in his reframing of water challenges.