The Race for Quantum Supremacy
Today’s Key Players and Predictions in the quantum computing market
Introduction
Whether you believe it or not, we are in the midst of a Quantum Computing Supremacy Race. According to a Communications Industry Researchers report, the Quantum computing market is expected to reach $1.9 Billion by 2023. The report’s author, Lawrence Gasman, goes on to state that Big Tech players are aggressively pursuing quantum R&D: “IBM, Google, and Microsoft have made quantum computing a central part of their enterprise computing strategy.” While these players have indicated their intentions, there still exist many unanswered questions. But the good, bad, and perhaps the just interesting news is, all current forecasts are mere speculation for this unpredictable market.
In this article, we have (1) highlighted some of the current existing players, (2) reviewed their market position, and (3) redefined quantum supremacy to clarify the market trajectory for the next decade. While there exist many unknowns around this future market, we will answer these key questions:
- Can the current Big Tech players successfully transition from maintaining server farms to quantum development?
- Will smaller players be able to leverage computing resources to expand rapidly?
- Who are the emerging players in the market and what are they doing?
IBM Q Network
IBM Q is the computer giant’s initiative to build the first commercial quantum computers. They currently have a prototype commercial quantum processor as well as a lineup of large corporate customers for their Q network, such as JPMorgan Chase, Daimler AG, and Samsung. While IBM has a strong network and team of academic researchers, industry experts expect that their 20 Qubit system will need hundreds more of qubits to be commercially usable by industry and academia. While the business is currently in R&D stage, a team of experienced professionals and an existing prototype show promise for IBM to be dominant market player in the next five years.
D-wave
You may have heard of the Canadian company D-wave, the quantum computer that Google is currently testing, as the “first quantum computing company in the world.” Their investors famously include Jeff Bezos and the CIA investment arm. An overview of their capabilities suggests that D-wave is more focused on hardware development and testing the quantum machine itself as opposed to network development. For example, they have developed a supercooled processor that attempts to solve the optimization problem. Machines are around 10 feet tall and are cooled by liquid helium. D-wave certainly exhibits strong potential, but do they provide the most efficient solutions to the optimization problem?
The caveat is, while D-wave’s machine can perform specific types of computations, it isn’t a universal quantum computer. The very processors that allow it to function limit its ability to calculate general problems that a modern PC can. As of 2018, D-wave’s products currently rest in the category of “specialized supercomputers,” machines that can perform particular calculations but are limited in their commercial application. Nevertheless, the trajectory of D-wave’s development shows strong potential based on its well-known investment backers alone.
Google Quantum A.I
Google boldly claims they know how quantum supremacy will be achieved, and that they have a proof-of-principle demonstration for the machine. However, the definition of quantum supremacy in their case is unclear. While they may release a quantum computer in the near future, the possibility of the machine outperforming a normal PC is speculative. The 50-Qubit computer may just be able to perform calculations that a standard computer cannot, but much remains to be seen in terms of useful applications. Google may achieve supremacy in releasing the first quantum computers, but whether they can bring an edge over traditional computers remains to be seen. If not, their machines would merely exist in parallel to traditional PCs. They would certainly achieve a scientific milestone but remain millions of miles away from quantum market domination.
Conclusion
After observing three of the most well-known players in the quantum market, some key themes emerge. The 2018 quantum market resembles more of a battleground for R&D than a mature commercial market, and the term “quantum supremacy” is loosely defined for each organization. Is quantum supremacy achieved when a 50-Qubit machine is successfully manufactured, when a new breakthrough promises solutions to the decoherence problem, or when a quantum computer can finally perform better than a standard laptop?
We at Conduit define quantum supremacy as the full realization of the fourth industrial revolution. That is, supremacy is truly achieved when quantum computers sit on your desk and fully replace your modern PC. We at Conduit hope to see the full introduction of quantum PCs into everyday life to solve business and scientific problems at an unprecedented pace. It is with the vision that we build our decentralized network of computing power and accelerate the development of quantum simulations.
The journey will be hard. But one step at a time, we hope to offer clarity to the world’s pressing need for scalable computing power. To learn more about our team and progress, visit our website and join our Telegram community.
By Julia Han, Chief Marketing Officer at Conduit: www.conduitcomputing.com
