Dec 11, 2021
Pécresse, Macron’s main foe at the moment
the next phases for the 2022 campaign
Here are the hunches from last week on Pécresse’s next moves and what panned out:
1/her campaign will work double time to counter her Parisian image and talk up her non-Paris links (her husband has Corrèze roots for example). Watch for Pécresse in boots during hunting season for example: her mentor Gérard Larcher, Senate President, is an avid hunter in the Yvelines forest. There’s a photo op coming next week.
2/ Pécresse will want to project an image as a “rassembleuse de talents” and will actually use the words “l’équipe France” vs Macron’s solitary style of leadership. Pécresse will insist on this and reference de Gaulle
3/ Pécresse will challenge Macron as France accedes to the EU Presidency on Jan 1. She will portray Macron as out of step with the rest of the EU and proclaim her own style of diplomacy “La France Forte” etc. Macron needs to be extra careful in how he manages the EU during campaigning
1/ Pécresse’s rise in the polls is a logical return to reality due to LR’s status as the dominant party in French politics: major regions/cities are headed by LR.
2/ She is deftly signalling her embrace of the entire LR spectrum with visits all over France to Ciotti in the Southeast, Bertrand in the Hauts de France and Barnier in Savoie. This will be done repeatedly to contrast with Macron who’s lost his early “barons” such as Lyon’s Gérard Collomb.
3/ The op-ed in Le Monde on HER vision of EU-France is a smart way to plant the flag vs Macron:
4/ The next challenge: Pécresse laments not being “seen” in Paris Match and media analysis playing up her reported “lack of charisma” and so-so oratory abilities. Pécresse is also lacking of a “story” to define herself. Watch her play up her son’s cannabis-linked arrest to relate to many French families
René Rémond’s bonapartiste v orléaniste frame is still valid. ROF/UNR/UDR/RPR/UMP/LR voters put a premium on “le chef” ;) Pécresse’s forceful style, eg Alliot Marie’s is a plus.
Ciotti’s hard right positions could peel off another 3–4% and put Pécresse at 20%, which is what’s needed to put LR firmly as a contender vs Macron. Then the harder path begins as Pécresse will surely try to play LR=Right and Macron=Left.
Macron’s support is much wider as Edouard Philippe, Gérald Darmanin and Le Maire’s roles in his political operation attests. En Marche will need to push the sovereignists vs pro-EU/pro-free trade. The Maastricht 92 referendum schism is THE dominant political fault line in France.
Pécresse has a few cards to play: there are persuadable Zemmour & Le Pen voters who were RPR until recently. She will weave her personal story to mirror Chirac’s, whose “capital sympathie” remains high amongst this group. She will also continue to say “Ciotti is my Charles Pasqua”.
The IFOP poll puts the “blocs” as such: Left at 25% (from Arthaud to Jadot), Right at 50% (from Pécresse to Lassalle) and Macron’s center at 25%. Macron’s votes come from both blocs IMO and are holding, for now.
The analysis on the Zemmour-Le Maire debate is notable: Zemmour is getting praise on debating skills but the subtext is that Le Maire as Macron’s proxy wasn’t effective in staking out the necessary political flag planting. To me this is where Pécresse will hit relentlessly: ”Macron stands for naught”.
