Revisiting election 2020 forecasting

Accuracy score: 6.8/10

(cross posted from Perspective and Context)

On Oct 25 2020, this writer set out to forecast the possible outcomes for the 2020 election, worth revisiting now. On a scale of 1/10 the correlation between possible and actual ranks at 6.8.

1- Biden wins in a sweeping 1932/1984 landslide

2- Biden ekes out a slim victory and Trump contests the win, sending the US into a self-destructive tailspin

3- Biden ekes out a slim victory and Trump huff and puffs but doesn’t contest the win, preferring to hedge his bet on the future

The last 5 months saw a relative mix of these 3 scenarios, with an emphasis on a mix of scenario 1 and 2: Biden won decisively on Election Day and achieved the exact same Electoral College win as Trump in 2016. As expected, Trump ended up contesting the win and did it with such venomous force that he propelled the Jan 6 insurrection at the Capitol.

What’s also confounding many observers is Biden’s accurate reading of the political zeitgeist, turning back the clock on America’s jettisoning of the power of government to accomplish great things.

Biden 2020 will be a consequential President as his election will end the Reagan era and bring back the force of a…