The Trumpian Chronicles — week 2
A pessimist-realist’s take on our changing world
These chronicles will be a compendium of thoughts, links, and if Medium finally allows co-authors, conversations.
Week 1 entry of the chronicles is here.
Week 1 was “shock and awe” (the first installment of these diaries here) and it’s hard to believe this past week is only week 2, as the barrage of executive orders and self-inflected controversies continued. As aptly recapped by James Fallows:
Let’s start by breaking down the main events of this second week:
- The spillover of the Executive Order/ban (Jan 30)
- The nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court (Jan 31)
- Mideast diplomacy: botched raid on Yemen and Iran “on notice” (Jan 26–27)
- The tense call with the Australian PM, leaked to the press (Feb 2)
- Business leaders distancing themselves from the new Administration (Feb 5)
Each of these events have contributed to establish duelling narratives in the US: the mainstream/DC media portraying the Administration as knife-fighting incompetents, while Fox News et al showing his supporters that he’s following through on his campaign promises.
I’ve included links from so-called mainstream publications but it’s paramount to go beyond and look at publications like the conservative National Review as well as Fox News and Breitbart.
- The spillover of the Executive Order/ban (Jan 30)
The Friday evening roll-out of the EO was problematic from the start as it quickly leaked that the Bannon/Miller duo had not properly consulted the agencies or Congress at length. Border patrol agents were left to interpret a confusing order and over the weekend it wasn’t clear the status of legal permanent residents of the US from the targeted 7 Mideast countries.
My take: This was a campaign promise that Trump wanted to fulfill early as a “red meat” “win” to show his base he meant it when he said he was going to be different. Nevertheless, the bluster of running government like a business or rather his business showed its limits there. As pointed out by storied James Baker in a must-listen Politico podcast: “Running a business and running the government are two entirely different functions, quite frankly, and process matters.” Trump is trying to run things with a very small phalanx of aides who are distrustful of each other and of government. Giuliani’s boast that Trump asked him for a “legal” Muslim ban, Spicer’s hair splitting “it’s not a ban” added to the confusion.
2. The nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court (Jan 31)
Trump explicitly farmed out the short list for his pick on the Scalia/Garland SCOTUS seat to the Federalist Society and the Heritage Foundation. He picked Neil Gorsuch, touted as by the press as “a predictable, logical pick for Trump, who won over a large portion of his conservative base with his pledge to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia with a jurist of similar pedigree.”
My take: Mainline conservatives and Evangelicals were uneasy with Trump until the last minute. His campaign managed to get them to “come home” as Pence asked on the basis of this SCOTUS appointment. This safe pick, just days after the EO/ban snafu started was praised as a rare moment of normalcy. The balance of SCOTUS will not shift with his confirmation, which should come unless Democrats are willing to filibuster/block him.
3. Mideast diplomacy: botched raid on Yemen and Iran “on notice” (Jan 26–27)
The botched raid on Yemen was Trump’s first actual “commander-in-chief” action. The death of civilians and of a Navy SEAL generated controversy and leaks started to suggest that the action was ordered without sufficient data. This failed action was compounded by NSA Flynn’s first appearance in the press briefing room on Feb 1 following the launch by Iran of a ballistic missile, where he stated that the “Obama Administration failed to respond adequately to Tehran’s actions” and that the “Trump Administration condemns such actions by Iran that undermine security, stability and prosperity throughout the Middle East.” Flynn, not taking questions, finished by saying this: ““As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice,”.
My take:
Trump, for all his bragging that he had 200 generals supporting him, was viewed very unfavorably by the military-industrial complex who shamelessly backed Hillary Clinton. Flynn is a fringe character and Mattis has not yet affirmed his authority. The raid on Yemen is a perfect example of an early military action by a new administration where politics and on the ground intelligence collide. The “Iran on notice statement” is more troubling because of Trump’s position that he wants a deal with Russia to deal with ISIS. Iran’s major ally in the region is Russia so Flynn’s statement is either a head fake or remarkably hubristic. The argument that the US can drive a wedge between Russia and Iran is laughable.
4. The tense call with the Australian PM, leaked to the press (Feb 2)
Trump likes to “wing it” and clearly did when on Jan 28 he dialled Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull. The leaks in the Washington Post published on Feb 2 are appalling: “President Trump blasted Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull over a refugee agreement and boasted about the magnitude of his electoral college win, according to senior U.S. officials briefed on the Saturday exchange. Then, 25 minutes into what was expected to be an hour-long call, Trump abruptly ended it. At one point, Trump informed Turnbull that he had spoken with four other world leaders that day — including Russian President Vladimir Putin — and that “this was the worst call by far.”
Trump, true to himself, tweeted this before the leaks:
Turnbull denied the acrid tone described in the leaks and was thanked by Trump.
My take: Trump, in his typical fashion, did not prepare this call and it was disastrous not so much for its content but because it signalled to close US allies that the US President does not have their back. The fact that McCain felt that he had to mop up the call shows that the US imperial hyperpresidency is losing its power with every tweet. Trump is accelerating its demise and counterintuitively that’s a good thing.
5. Business leaders distancing themselves from the new Administration (Feb 5)
The US tech sector, reliant on global markets for manufacturing, talent and exports, initially tried to play nice and met with Trump before his inauguration. His anti-trade tirades clearly rubbed most of Silicon Valley the wrong way but the true marker was the EO/ban. 93 companies filed an amicus brief to get the EO struck down in court.
My take: The US tech sector overtly and overwhelmingly supported Trump’s opponent. The initial lukewarm meeting has now turned to hostility, fuelled equally by their self-interest as the US economy’s most global-oriented sector (with the entertainment business) as well as their employees’ demands. This confrontation could be massaged with tax reform, in particular how to repatriate the trillions stashed overseas by the major tech companies.
LINKS:
Week 2 roundups:
Voices to listen to/follow:
