Top 6 reasons a pragmatic pessimist (me) is an optimistic realist for 2015–2016
Those of you who know me have probably “met” my pragmatic pessimist side, which I blame entirely on my French roots. A conversation with my father, who is based in France, and thus in a relatively challenging and somewhat negative business environment, got me thinking. My father is a business education pioneer, he created the first French-Chinese international commerce degree and spends half the year in Asia and the US. Even with his worldview, he asked me if “I saw the light at the end of the tunnel” from a macro view.
I decided to take a step back, and at the end of 2014, look at what awaits us in 2015–2016. I will start with a general macro outlook and then focus on my area of expertise, the crossroads between tech, media and entertainment.
#1: Recent incidents with Russia, North Korea and their economic consequences should show us that we are ONE and totally interconnected
The first decade of the 21st century, in an echo to the start of the 20th, shows the power of worldwide interconnectedness. No one country or economic zone can innovate and thrive in an isolation. The recent months, rife with geopolitical tremors in Ukraine, Russia and North Korea have demonstrated, yet again, the interlocking of the major economic powers. Russia’s Eurasian “dream” will remain one as Putin is being cajoled back into reality by Angela Merkel. The alleged North Korean hack on Sony (covered here) had very interesting ripple effects, notably China’s involvement in shutting down Pyongyang’s phone and web networks. China in 2015–2016 will need to demonstrate its ability to project its power — both soft and hard — around the world and shed its inward-looking political culture. What looks like a US-led economic recovery for 2015 and the hopes it elicits in Europe notably, reinforces the strength of the Euro-US/Canada bond. As noted by my friend Francis Gosselin (who also edited this piece): these geopolitical tremors “will no doubt keep sparking the media’s interest and thus will foster activist and hacktivist communities. This will further negate any kind of “deconnection”. A growing percentage of overall wealth is generated online, on a global connected scale, rendering deconnection impossible. Alibaba’s NYSE IPO is a notable event in this respect.”
#2: Technology will accelerate more in the next 5 years than in the last 10, a result of the combination of cheaper computing power, mass connectivity and mass democratization of post-industrial building blocks such as 3D printing
Notable tech analysts have been writing that the last 3 decades, which at first glance have seemed less of a historic shift than the first 3 decades of the 20th century, will come to be known as key. They’ve installed the building blocks to the post-industrial age and the advent of the digital world. Moore’s law has exponentially increased computing power while its cost drops, the “cloudization” trend, coupled with the rise Internet of Things, will get us to a point where the analog and digital worlds will be truly connected. 3D printing is another trend that is rapidly going beyond the hobbyist/proto-industrial phase. The 3D printing of blood vessels, and the spectacular 3D printing of a wrench aboard the International Space Station show its potential. Let’s remember personal computing began in Silicon Valley kitchens with hobbyists assembling micro-computers in the late 1970s, a similar trajectory is possible for 3D printing. 2015–2016 will see the rise of Etsy-powered creators who will be able to serve a global community of niches with their products.
#3: Consumers will become “owners” of their interactions with the world: as the true owners of their brands and owners of their data/metadata
One of the most reported news “event” in the tech and now mainstream press is each of Facebook’s terms of use modifications. The oft-repeated stance is that users have accepted the deal of “being the product” in exchange for granular control on privacy settings. The impact of retargeting and the numerous hacks of major platforms have heightened web users’ sense that they must take back control. My hunch is that major platforms have heard the message loud and clear and will deliver. This will ensure that users remain willing participants in the free to use model behind the success of Google and Facebook. This does not, however, mean that marketers’ “Minority Report” wet dream of hyper-personalized ad messages is near. The other angle in sync with this increased ownership of consumers will extend to brands. Mass customization has been a buzzword bandied about the marketing world for a few years. It will inch towards reality with the combination of brands willing to operate as tastemakers enabling power users and 3D printing. Hasbro has already started the trend, Lego should not be far behind. These developments should spell countless opportunities for the Etsy-fueled artisan/maker movement.
#4: Media disintermediation will boost relevance and curation, all for the benefit of the audience: readers/listeners/viewers
We are in the digital world much like our forefathers were in the Gutenberg era in front of the first libraries: overwhelmed and fearful we’re “missing out”. The last two decades saw the traditional 19th and 20th century media platforms get “blown to bits” and disintermediation become the norm. Steven Rosenbaum wrote an entire book on the topic of curation in our information-overloaded world. In Curation Nation, Steven “asserts that curation is the only way to remain competitive in the future. Overwhelmed by too much content, increasing numbers of people are seeking a “boutique” online experience. You can extract value from an otherwise useless chaos of digital noise.”
One of the surefire ways to curate well is to go back to the roots of modern media and be a central node to cut through the noise. Among the fastest-growing media platforms who act as such, much to the chagrin of Aaron Sorkin, are Buzzfeed and the Huffington Post. Both outlets have opened overseas outposts, the HuffPost now has 13 editions around the world, the latest one in India. Buzzfeed now has 7, including France and India. Decried by all as mere meme aggregators, both are innovating: HuffPost Live is now is now re-”broadcast” on Hulu and MGM’s diginet and has applied for a broadcast license in Canada. Buzzfeed raised $50M in Aug 2014 from VC Andreessen Horowitz and is launching Buzzfeed Motion Pictures, a branded content studio and a distribution company. “Old media” is aping these enterprises and in a sense, in the digital realm, there are no more boundaries to who is primarily a newspaper, a tv channel or a radio station. All media brands are now producing text, audio and video stories. The level playing field will spur countless competitors, all to the benefit of the reader/viewer/listener.
#5: Storytelling boundaries will be pushed via augmented reality, virtual reality and the digitization of the analog world
I wrote in April 2014 that we were on the cusp of “The Age of Oculus” and that Virtual Reality was going to push storytelling boundaries. Fast forward to the beginning of 2015 and VR is everywhere, most notably at the Sundance Film Festival. My Montréal-based friends Félix&Paul will have their work featured alongside Nonny de la Peña and other trailbrazers. Samsung’s Gear VR headset was released in time for Christmas and marks the commercial roll-out of this exciting technology to the general public.
“Secretive” augmented reality startup Magic Leap raised a monster $542M from Google in Oct 2014 to “develop and commercialize the most natural and human-friendly wearable computing interface in the world.” Magic Leap has hired Neal Stephenson, author of Snow Crash, as Chief Futurist. Stephenson wrote that “Magic Leap is mustering an arsenal of techniques…to produce a synthesized light field that falls upon the retina in the same way as light reflected from real objects in your environment,” and that Magic Leap would be a tool for “readers, learners, scientists, and artists.” This palette of tools should allow storytellers to challenge the public’s view of how a story is told. These tools will help further blur the boundary between the analog and the digital worlds and spur a new generation of hardware and software creators, as well as a new wave of storytellers, distributors, etc.. 2015 will be the year of larger scale experimentation in VR from the likes of Felix&Paul, Condition One, Jaunt, David Attenborough, the creators of 11.57pm and others. 2015 will also be the year where VR will go mainstream or not, Samsung, Sony and Oculus should all three roll-out their headsets. 2016 should therefore be the transition year from experimentation to a real market for Virtual Reality content.
#6: All’s good as we all just might be part of a huge virtual universe
To balance out my optimism I want to end with one of the most fascinating ideas that I’ve seen spread over the past few years and jump from obscure websites to mainstream press: the “probability” that we just might be living in a giant simulation, created by super-advanced beings. Nick Bostrom wrote a paper on the topic in 2003 and the idea has since gained in popularity and respectability: Time, Discover, Wired and countless others have featured it. My personal conclusion: until we know for sure, let’s not take ourselves too seriously and allow for dreams to flourish !
