Looking forward to a tax refund? Should you be?

Assuming the net result each year is that you’ve paid income taxes, aiming for a nice tax return isn’t the most mathematically sound approach.
There is a psychological value to it that’s hard to quantify.
That aside, you’re just giving the U.S. government an interest free loan.
If you’re thinking to yourself, I should pay as little as possible so they give me an interest free loan, be careful. To a point, you’re not wrong, but if you cross into penalty territory that math quickly changes. You can certainly underpay some to do that while hitting penalty territory, but you need to be 100% sure to have saved that money to have it to pay come tax day. And if something happens and you use that money, you’re back in to penalties, just of a different variety.
Sometimes it’s best to use things as they were intended. The tax system isn’t meant as a savings fund for a vacation or anything else each year. It’s meant to drive revenue for the government on a continuous basis such that not much happens on tax day from a settling of accounts perspective. So, if you want to use it as intended, I think that’s to aim for zero owed to the government and zero owed to you.

The bottom line is that if you don’t incur penalties and if you owe money you can write a check to cover it on tax day without negatively impacting any other bills, you’re doing ok. Everyone is different. This is just food for thought. Sound financial practices tend to lead to good credit, as they should.