‘A wind of change across Europe’ as SYRIZA sweep to victory
SYRIZA have recorded a historic majority in the Greek national elections, falling 2 seats shy of a parliamentary majority but still exceeding the expectations of most supporters. They received just over 36% of votes, with the centre-right New Democracy (ND) receiving just under 28% and 76 seats. There was continued evidence of a fragmented vote as five other parties entered parliament, each receiving between 13 and 17 seats. Most notably, the neo-nazi Golden Dawn — over half their MPs are currently in jail — came third, highlighting the feeling of contempt that the electorate has directed towards the traditional parties.
Putting SYRIZA’s victory into context highlights the significance of this election: it is the first time since 1977 that neither PASOK nor ND came first in a national election and SYRIZA are the first radical left party to come into power in Europe since 1936 in Spain. SYRIZA are also the first anti-austerity party to form a government since the financial crisis of 2008, questioning the neoliberal consensus that has engulfed Europe and potentially reinvigorating leftist groups across Europe. During his victory speech at Athens University, Alexis Tsipras the newly sworn in Prime Minister, declared that ”The memorandums of austerity and destruction … the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)) is in the past,” repeating the anti-troika rhetoric that has elevated SYRIZA from an election result of just 4% in 2009.
SYRIZA have confirmed that they will lead a coalition with the right-wing anti-troika ‘Independent Greeks (IG).’ This gives the government a parliamentary majority of 162 seats. Although the two parties share an anti-austerity vision, there are few similarities between them otherwise. Immigration is one issue that is likely to cause friction, while the ‘Independent Greeks’ want greater church influence in the education system. SYRIZA’s leadership will need to strike what will be a difficult balance between accommodating the views of IG and those of the more radical elements of its own party. ‘To Potami,’ the centrist party that was being touted as the other potential coalition partner had previously said they would not join a coalition that would jeopardise Greece’s membership of the Euro. SYRIZA’s agreement with IG perhaps shows a tacit acceptance that exiting the eurozone is a possibility, despite recent pro-eurozone rhetoric in the run up to these elections. Taking a less sceptical view, a coalition with ‘To Potami’ would have significantly weakened SYRIZA’s negotiating position with the troika so in that respect, the ‘Independent Greeks’ represented the best option.
What next for Greece?
The ECB wants a bailout review to be completed before Greece receives further financial support. Tsipras has already stated his intention to not complete the review, instead wanting to renegotiate national debt on a Europe-wide scale. Seeking support from the rest of Europe for their debt relief plans would put pressure on the ECB as it is possible that they could withdraw support for Greek banks, widespread support for a European debt conference would reduce this possibility. Indeed, the ECB and IMF could attempt to bring down a SYRIZA-led government but the political ramifications would be serious with Golden Dawn openly stating that they are waiting in the wings, while the very function of democracy would come into question if a sovereign government was forced to fail in this way.
SYRIZA, the Greek people, the troika and the rest of Europe have all expressed a desire in one way or another that they want to keep the eurozone together, but there is a chasm between the positions of SYRIZA and the troika, meaning that a Greek exit is still a real possibility. SYRIZA want a portion of the national debt to be written off while Eurozone finance ministers meeting on Monday the 26th of January reiterated their previous position: a debt write-off will not happen, but later debt repayment is a possibility. This piece by Frédéric Lordon shows the difficulties inherent in both sides maintaining such rigid positions, stating plainly that:
“Syriza has to accept an economic straitjacket if it wants to keep the euro — or else it can reject both.”
If the ECB removed support for Greek banks, or if Greece unilaterally defaulted on its loans then it would have no choice but to return to its former currency, the drachma. There is little room for compromise on both sides, giving Greece some leeway would result in other countries such as Spain and Italy seeking a similar deal while SYRIZA will not want to let down supporters by retreating from its values.
The 28th of February will see the current bailout programme expire. SYRIZA are staunchly opposed to furthering any bailout deal, associated austerity, privatisation and de-regulatory measures are idelogically incompatible with SYRIZA. This would put immediate financial pressure on a SYRIZA-led government. Thus, SYRIZA are likely to seek a few months worth of time to allow negotiations to take place.
Eurozone troubles
Greece adopted the euro in 2001 and countries still continue to join the eurozone to this day, Lithuania being the most recent (adopted 1/1/2015). The benefits of using a single European currency include lower transaction costs boosting trade, cost of borrowing decreases and less risk from currency fluctuations. In Eastern Europe particularly, the Euro is often viewed by pro-Europeans as a form of defence — if only symbolic — against Russia.
Yet the Euro continues to have its problems, and the potential for a Southern European bloc of resistance is evident. Support for anti-Euro parties in Italy stands at around 50% while there has been the suggestion that SYRIZA’s victory could cause divisions within Italy’s social democratic government as many within the main Democratic Party sympathise with SYRIZA’s program. Sinn Féin in Ireland has echoed calls for a European debt conference, while a recent poll put Sinn Féin on 22% (even higher among 18–34 year olds), higher than all other parties. The poll also asked voters about ‘reforming politics’ and ‘protecting the vulnerable in society,’ Sinn Féin were considered to be the best party on both measures. Podemos are also polling well in Spain, where elections towards the end of the year will be heavily influenced by the next few months in Greece. There is an obvious link between Greece, Italy, Spain and Ireland, anti-Euro — and ′shadow Eurosceptics,′ primarily pro-European but support economic policies incompatible with euro membership — parties are on the rise, representing the growing strength of opposition to the eurozone.
In many ways, a successful SYRIZA-led government — whether in the eurozone or not — could dramatically reorientate European politics. If the government can sustain economic growth and improve the prospects of the Greek people, then the notion that austerity is necessary will be smashed. A successful Greece outwith the eurozone would raise even more questions, leaving the eurozone could become the norm if it transpires that Greece ends up better off. For now, leftist parties across Europe will be hoping that SYRIZA will be successful, not least Podemos in Spain. A successful SYRIZA combined with a Podemos election win would be groundbreaking, dismantling the neoliberal consensus that has taken hold in Europe and opening a new chapter in European political history.
SYRIZA logo by Thierry Ehrmann — CC BY 2.0
Originally published at www.contributoria.com.
