New York State: Deaths Reported by Nursing Homes and the Administration for Children and Families Top 3,500

As of June 17, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have reported a total of 2,132,321 cases and 116,862 deaths — an increase of 27,975 new cases and 722 new deaths from June 16 — and 24,629 total deaths in New York State alone. However, it was found that nursing homes account for over 40 percent of U.S. coronavirus deaths (McEvoy, 2020).

On May 2, 2020, New York State nursing homes and the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) released a compilation of projected COVID-19 related deaths through June 15, 2020 for 41 counties in the state.

Nursing homes and the ACF have reported no deaths in Montgomery County while Suffolk and Queens have the highest number of recorded deaths with 568 deaths total from both sources and 452 deaths total respectively. On average, each New York county has approximately 85 deaths in nursing homes and around 3 deaths in the ACF. In total, the source documented 3,611 deaths in the state. When reports from both authorities are taken into account, each county averages 88 deaths.

Considering other sources of data such as Figure 1 below (Coronavirus Visualization Team, 2020), there appears to be a general positive correlation between higher poverty rates and an increase in numbers of coronavirus cases. For instance, Suffolk County has the largest amount of deaths according to data provided by the ACF and nursing homes, and it appears to have a high poverty rate.

Figure 1. Poverty Rates. Source: Lucas Chu, Coronavirus Visualization Team.

Another diagram below suggests a relation between poverty — as a measure of The Robert Graham Center’s Social Deprivation Index (SDI) — and coronavirus cases by zip code (Coronavirus Visualization Team, 2020). As demonstrated by the scatter plot graph, a higher SDI score indicates a greater deprivation. This is calculated based on seven factors from the American Community Survey.

Figure 2. Social Deprivation Index vs Case Count by Zip Code. Source: Lucas Chu, Coronavirus Visualization Team.

Additional resources, such as the New York State COVID-19 tracker, indicate that those who are 70 years old or older comprise 65.7 percent of the fatalities. In addition, the largest portion of deaths in the state are of Hispanic descent; non-white persons account for most of the deaths.

Considering other sources of data such as Figure 3 below (Coronavirus Visualization Team, 2020), there appears to be a general positive correlation between immigrants and an increase in numbers of coronavirus cases. Immigrants could have greater difficulties accessing needed resources and information. This would correlate to the disproportionate number of non-white persons affected.

Figure 3. Immigrants versus Cases in Census Tracts. Source: Lucas Chu, Coronavirus Visualization Team.

When other maps, like the one below, are taken into account, there appears to be a general correlation with poverty rates (as depicted in Figure 1). Poverty could affect access to healthcare services and hamper recovery efforts.

Figure 4. Persons Tested Positive by County. Source: New York State Department of Health.

These factors could account for an increase of COVID-19 cases and deaths in smaller counties where poverty rates are higher despite a smaller population. For instance, Suffolk County has a low population density (Figure 5) but contains a large number of cases and deaths as well as a greater poverty rate.

Figure 5. Population Density. Source: Lucas Chu, Coronavirus Visualization Team.

The indicators described above, such as poverty and immigration, could help predict where New York State will need more resources and aid during recovery. This would ultimately prevent outbreaks, contain the pandemic, and enable New York to reopen safely.

References

Centers for Disease Prevention and Control. (16 June 2020.) Cases in the U.S. | CDC. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Chu, Lucas. (2 June 2020.) Poverty Rates. NYC COVID & Census Data — Lucas Chu | Tableau Public. Retrieved from https://public.tableau.com/profile/lucas.chu#!/vizhome/NYCCOVIDCensusData/SocialDeprivationIndex?publish=yes

Chu, Lucas. (2 June 2020.) Social Deprivation Index vs Case Count by Zip Code. NYC COVID & Census Data — Lucas Chu | Tableau Public. Retrieved from https://public.tableau.com/profile/lucas.chu#!/vizhome/NYCCOVIDCensusData/SocialDeprivationIndex?publish=yes

Chu, Lucas. (2 June 2020.) Population Density. NYC COVID & Census Data — Lucas Chu | Tableau Public. Retrieved from https://public.tableau.com/profile/lucas.chu#!/vizhome/NYCCOVIDCensusData/SocialDeprivationIndex?publish=yes

Chu, Lucas. (n.d.) Immigrants versus Cases in Census Tracts. CVT — Static Visualizations. Retrieved from https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h3Kzh-7nw-lX1vAOhZOT2BntaoSAnH66NsGAiq06i-s/view#heading=h.hqi60hv7h8xa

McEvoy, Jemima. (16 June 2020.) Nursing Homes Account For Over 40% Of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths. Forbes Magazine. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/06/16/nursing-homes-account-for-over-40-of-us-coronavirus-deaths/#769e8bd0300b

New York State Department of Health. (16 June 2020.) Workbook: NYS COVID-19-Tracker. Retrieved from https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

New York State Department of Health. (2 May 2020.) Nursing Home and ACF COVID Related Deaths Statewide. Retrieved from https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf

The Robert Graham Center. (n.d.) Social Deprivation Index (SDI). Retrieved from https://www.graham-center.org/rgc/maps-data-tools/sdi/social-deprivation-index.html

We’re a team of students working to better visualize and share the impacts, present and future, of COVID-19.

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