People Suck At Decision Making
Why & What To Do About It
Great decision making is not a binary concept. It is not just about making the right decision (assuming there even is one). It includes the level of effort, resource, and expense required to make it. In other words, you can make the right choice but still make it poorly.
Know Why
Why do people make such bad decisions? Why indeed? Humans are infatuated with why. Get others to believe your why and they will readily and willingly overlook both the how and the what. It is what drives people to do bad things in the name of good causes. It is a core facet of modern culture.
Unfortunately, why is not easy, not fast, nor very reliable. It is strategic. It is emotional. It resonates. It connects. But it doesn’t lead to great decision making…
This is not an argument to discard your philosophical quest for why. Why is a wonderful thing. Just use it to inform your decisions, not make them.
Know What?
What is equally infatuating. In the United States, we live in a service economy (more on that soon). Yet, there is an ever-growing pressure to productize everything. It is so much easier to sell what. What is tangible. What is simple. Only thing is which what… and why?
Which becomes time consuming. Which can go wrong. Which requires resources — time & money. Of course, it is all a little easier if you have a firm why, but only a little. People buy a lot of what only to find it collecting dust in the attic, the closet, or the landfill. It is the legacy of poor decision making. Of course, if this what didn’t fix it — the next what surely will. Iterate enough and you will get the right answer… but not a good decision. What did you sacrifice for all that time, money, and effort?
Once again, creating a what is a great thing. Basing your decisions on what is another thing entirely.
Know-How
We live in a service economy (see I didn’t lie). Although, to be honest, people are not very good at it. While on one hand, a huge percentage of our work force is engaged in providing us with a how. The other hand still insists on whats and whys. Or worse still — it demands to provide the how.
This isn’t always a bad thing. But the process is so convoluted and irrational, it seems to be the worst thing in the highest risk situations. People aren’t just bad decision makers, they are actually inclined to be worst at the decisions that matter most (or are most sensitive).
They spend endless time on minor decisions and little time on major ones. It all seems to be a function of optimal knowledge. Remember that saying?
“I know enough to be dangerous.”
Darwin awards aside, this is a prevalent reality in the world of decision making. Decision making time increases with limited knowledge before eventually becoming more efficient.
“Over Thinking”
The increase in time spent on decision making is NOT proportional to the likelihood of making a good decision. Note — increased knowledge, almost by definition, leads to more positive outcome, but NOT more efficient ones.
Know Who
Back to our service economy, the solution is simple — get more know-how. It increases the likelihood of a good outcome and the speed and efficiency at which it can be made. This requires you to know who. It also requires you to let them make the decision for you. If you interfere, you will slow them down (overlaying your knowledge curve on theirs). This is not to say you can’t have constraints, requirements, or even ask for a basic tutorial — just don’t get in the way.
If this seems far fetched, consider some frequent examples of how this often occurs. Ever hear someone in a five-star restaurant declare the way they want their steak prepared? Perhaps you do this regularly? What are you paying for? That filet is easily $20 more per plate. You are paying for the chef’s knowledge and expertise, yet so many will readily overrule what it took years of study, application, and experimentation to provide.
Note — if you tell them you prefer your meat more well-done or more rare, that is an input or constraint. I am referring to the typical “medium-well” reply.
You may want to debate this. Perhaps you like overpaying for better ingredients (they don’t amount to $20)? Perhaps it is the ambiance? Let’s try another.
Know anyone who pays $150 or more for a haircut? Many women do. You would think at that rate, they would trust the stylist to provide a great cut without an array of directions… quite often this is not the case. Are they paying for better scissors?
I Know Me… Don’t I?
People rationalize their interference with a typical refrain. I know me. I know my tastes. I know what I like. While I am sure this feels right, it probably isn’t. Perhaps you have led a life of wild indulgence and experimentation? Perhaps you have eaten so many steaks, with so many varied preparations that you are now absolutely certain that no other temperature other than Medium-Well will ever provide you a optimal dining experience. Seems a little far-fetched to me…
Worse still is the corporate refrain — I know my business. Sorry, this is highly unlikely. Again, you are not prevented from providing input. You likely do know your preference — directionally. You may know what has failed in the past. You are allowed to have opinions, but when you attempt to overrule experienced practitioners — you are making a bad decision. You either hired the wrong who, you are too preoccupied with some what, or just interfering in the how. Why?
Make decisions where you truly have great knowledge, otherwise leave them to the experts. If that is not possible, at least don’t overthink them. The decision is not likely to have any better outcome and you will simply waste good time and money doing it. Thanks for reading!
