Who’s In?
Here we have the first official College Football Playoff Ranking as decided by the College Football Playoff Committee. If you are unfamiliar with the committee or the playoff and you are curious about what college football fans will be talking about for the next 5 weeks; I wrote a pretty thorough explanation of what is going on here.
Being in the top 4 does not guarantee you a spot in the playoff, we still have 5 weeks of college football and anything can happen. In the history of the CFB Playoff rankings, the team ranked number three during the first week of November, has never made the playoff. Incidentally, Alabama has never missed the playoff, so a streak is going to end this year one way or another. In each year besides the first (2015), a team in the top 4 won the National Championship. In 2015 Ohio State was ranked 16 after the first week of November and they went on to be champions. Basically what I’m saying is anything can happen, but if your team is on top today, you’re in a distinct advantage.
Let's take a look at the rest of the teams fighting for a spot into the elusive top 4:
Looking at this list, I would say anyone ranked lower than 9 is out of luck. In fact, I think Utah is dead. If you remember my blog last week, Utah and Oregon are both in the Pac 12 and even if Utah wins the Pac 12 championship, I don’t see them making the playoff. This year the conference is weak and the Committee probably feels comfortable leaving them home.
Who’s Fighting for a Spot?
1 Ohio State (Big 10)
I’ll start by saying I HATE Ohio State. That’s just my Penn State bias and its part of what makes College Football great.
However, I truly believe Ohio State is the best team in College Football. Ohio State is beating the shit out of everyone. They have two top 25 wins and their closest games came in two 24 point victories. One of which came week 1 against Florida Atlantic when Coach Ryan Day emptied the bench and let a bunch of 18-year-old freshman fresh out of high school try to compete at the college level.
This is a truly complete team, in fact, Ohio State looks more like the quintessential Alabama team than Alabama. Their defense is fast and their offense can score from anywhere on the field. Quarterback Justin Fields has been blowing away everyone’s expectations, and Running Back J.K. Dobbins has come out of nowhere to make an argument for best running back in College Football. Finally, Defensive End Chase Young has 13.5 sacks and will likely end with over 20. If the Heisman hasn’t devolved into an award for the best quarterback, and truly was given to the best player in College Football, my vote would go to Chase Young. This dude is a monster.
2 Louisiana State (SEC)
LSU has 3 top 10 wins looking down the barrel of Alabama (SEC). Over the last decade, Alabama has dominated not only LSU but all of College Football. This year looks like the year LSU has a chance to turn the tables and pull off a victory that would basically guarantee they make the Playoff.
The problem is this game is in Tuscaloosa this year, Alabama is always difficult to play, but everyone is dangerous at home. LSU has one of the most dangerous atmospheres in College Football, and it would be awesome if they had that little boost, but you play the schedule you’re given.
There is some good news for LSU, with their resume, a 1-loss season at the hands of Alabama still makes a STRONG argument to make the playoff. In fact, there is a very good chance both LSU and Alabama make the playoff.
3 Alabama (SEC)
Alabama doesn’t have the same remarkable resume that LSU has, but they have been doing what is expected of them. When you play an inferior opponent, you’re expected to beat the shit out of them, and that’s what Alabama has done. Their closest game being a 19 point victory over a struggling, but ranked Texas A&M. Earlier I said this is LSU’s best chance to take down Goliath and I truly believe that.
Alabama’s decade of dominance has been largely predicated on elite defense, and the reality is that this year’s defense just isn’t up to the Alabama standard. Don’t get me wrong they are not a bad defense, in fact, they are still a very good defense, but they are probably the worst defense Nick Saban has coached since he won his first Championship at Alabama.
That being said they do have an elite offense, something Saban rarely has, and Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the best QB Saban has ever coached. As we sit here today Tue is out with a high-ankle sprain, but he has been practicing and Saban is calling him a game-time decision. Currently with Tua questionable Alabama is favorited at -6.5 which seems like a big number. If he can go, that line might move, but if he isn’t ready, LSU is primed to do something amazing.
4 Penn State (Big 10)
So far numbers 1,2, and 3 panned out more or less exactly how everyone expected. LSU and OSU can probably be switched, Ohio State looks more impressive on the field, while LSU has a more impressive resume. If those two switched, no one would complain and frankly, no one is complaining about how the two fell. Alabama could have been 4 based on their weak schedule, but again no one is really shocked where they fell. But this is probably the biggest shock of the entire top 6.
A few people speculated that Penn State would jump into the top 4 due to their resume, and defense. Only one team has scored more than 13 on them and incidentally its the only team that has managed to score more than one touchdown. This decision seems to tell college football fans that resume is more important than the eye test. Penn State played 2 top 20 teams and has two more coming, including the number one team in the nation.
Like every other team on the list, going undefeated would guarantee Penn State a spot in the playoff, but like LSU, Penn State can afford to lose a close game on the road to Ohio State. That's what the committee calls a “Quality Loss”. Basically a 1 loss Penn State who keeps it within 3 points of the best team in College Football on the road, may still be more impressive to the committee than an undefeated team that has had zero challenges.
5 Clemson (ACC)
Clemson is furious about this decision. They feel like they should be top 4 and a lot of them think they should be number 1. The reality is, their resume just doesn’t make the same claim.
Clemson is in a tricky position. The ACC is really bad this year, no one has really made any noise and that has killed Clemson’s resume. Their best win came at home against Texas A&M but they only got out by 14. By contrast, Alabama went to A&M and won that game by 19 and still has the number two team in the country coming as well as number 11 Auburn on the road. When Clemson can’t be blamed for the weakness in their conference, but they can be held responsible for how they play in those games. They snuck past a remarkably average UNC when North Carolina blew a 2-pt conversion that could have won the game.
Otherwise, they’ve beaten the shit out of teams in an unimpressive way. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 8 interceptions thus far, last year he through 4 total in 15 games. He isn’t living up to his own expectations. They will probably go undefeated and win their conference which will put them in the playoff, but the committee is looking for a reason to leave them home and one loss will do it. They don’t have the luxury of having an impressive loss like Either Bama or LSU will have.
It’s widely expected that these guys go undefeated, but they need to come up with a good argument to get themselves in the playoff quick. Maybe it will be beating the shit out of 19 Wake Forest. That will give them a second top 25 win on the year. The problem is, their other top 25 team, Texas A&M, fell out of the top 25. In a way, Wake Forest will be their only top 25 win. Frankly, that might not cut it this year with so many talented teams fighting for position. As we sit here, the best argument Clemson can make for 2019 is what they did in 2018, and the committee has made it clear that they do not care at all about what happened last year. This is a “what have you done for me lately” sport, and Clemson needs to find an answer to that question.
Final Thoughts
For those of you playing at home, 2 Big 10 teams and 2 Sec teams to round out the top 4 is a pretty big deal. It's worth noting that 1 OSU plays 4 PSU on 11/23 and 2 LSU plays 3 Bama on 11/9. By the end of the month, two of the top 4 teams will become 1 loss teams. I'm curious how the committee judges these losses against top programs in comparison to Clemson’s cupcake schedule. A blowout will surely be a death sentence, but if these games stay within one touchdown the committee will have a lot to talk about.
