The Oscars: Justice Only By Accident?
Hollywood’s Secret Formula That Allows Win Oscars and Box Office
“There is no wealth like knowledge, and no poverty like ignorance.” — Ali ibn Abi Talib
The history of the Film Academy decision is a history of injustice (see the list below). But there have been a few times when I agreed with the results. This happened again in March 2024, when in a desperate battle, Oppenheimer defeated Barbie.
Although I think this is not the merit of the Film Academy, but a coincidence of circumstances. Why? Let’s look back at 1976 as an example.
Then, the Oscar for Best Picture is won by Rocky over Taxi Driver and Network. How did this happen? I think the decision may have been influenced by the box office, just like decisions around Barbie today.
Rocky collected $100 million worldwide in 1976 (now it’s equal to $500M), and this could have secured him a nomination and victory. Barbie collected $1.4 billion and if there was no Oppenheimer (also with $1 billion), Barbie would have won. Why?
Most major film festivals (Cannes, Venice, Berlin, etc.) prioritize premiere status for the films they present, while the Oscars do not. This means that before being nominated for an Oscar, films are widely released and the box office numbers influence the opinion of film academics.
Barbie would not have received even a nomination without such box office success. Barbie is more of a pop culture phenomenon than cinematic art. Its success is based on three main factors.
First, the film is based on a 65-year-old doll brand with an army of customers. Second, the main roles were played by A-list actors: Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, supported by their army of fans (and they are mad now).
Inviting movie stars is not only about using their personal brand. It is also a bet on case law in selecting winners. For example, Meryl Streep had a record-breaking 21 nominations and wins three. Was it an accident? Definitely not for the producers who called her for roles.
The third: director is Greta Gerwig (who had previously been nominated for Lady Bird). And the forth is Advertising. According to Variety, Barbie had a $150 million marketing budget — more than the movie’s actual budget.
“Advertising. It doesn’t matter what you’re selling, if you throw enough money at it, people will buy it” — Thomas J. Barratt
Combine these four elements and you get the pop culture phenomenon like Barbie.
Rocky is good but not enough for the Best Picture. Not even close to Taxi Driver and Network. Nevertheless it won. It happens not always, but quite often marketing and box office trump arts.
Social and political sentiments also have a strong influence on the Academy. In 1980, Apocalypse Now’s portrayal of the brutality of war and the dirty internal methods of Army officials was considered unacceptable by majority of voters.
As a result, the “safe” family drama Kramer vs. Kramer was recognized as the best film of the year. Although these two films are comparable to each other as raging typhoon and a leaky faucet.
Admittedly, most Hollywood productions use this “four-elenents” formula. As a brand they could add a past cult person or a famous event (e.g. Elvis Presley, the Watergate, etc.).
You may ask, “Where is the plot in this formula?” The plot is a bargaining chip that is redrawn many times to 1)present the movie stars in the most favorable way and 2)to allow the directors to realize their “vision”.
It’s a common practice to change 3–4 screenwriters on one film, including the author who came up with the story. Read more about this in Goldman’s book.
What will remain in the end from the original story? Unrealistic plot, zero meaning, cliches instead of dialogues, etc. Who cares if you can get a big box office and Oscars.
Although the script is the element that determines the outcome, when all other elements are equal. Oppenheimer had 1)stars of the same bankability level as Barbie (Murphy, Blunt, Downey Jr.); 2)advertising was about $100 million; 3)famous brand and event (creator of the world’s first military used nuclear bomb); 4)great director (Nolan).
I like pop culture, and I like Greta Gerwig (read here) but the Oscars is about cinematic art (or should be). Oppenheimer is objectively stronger in terms of story.
Examples of injustice throughout the history of the Oscars
1941: Citizen Kane loses to How Green Was My Valley. It’s like a heart transplant surgery less importent than a Band-Aid application.
1952: The Greatest Show on Earth wins over High Noon. Seriously, academics?
1958: Gigi wins over Cat on a Hot Tin Roof and The Defiant Ones. It’s like a game of hopscotch is more spectacular than a heavyweight boxing match.
1969: Oliver! wins over 2001: A Space Odyssey. It’s like choosing between a Shakespearean tragedy and a children’s book about sharing toys.
1976: Rocky won over Taxi Driver and Network (see above).
1977: Star Wars lost to Annie Hall. It’s like choosing a sitcom about a family argument over laundry over a documentary about the fall of Rome.
1978: The Deer Hunter was nominated for Best Picture but ultimately lost to Coming Home.
1979: Apocalypse Now, beaten by Kramer vs. Kramer. This error can never be forgiven.
1980: Ordinary People winning over Raging Bull.
1989: Driving Miss Daisy wins over Do the Right Thing.
1990: Dances with Wolves winning over Goodfellas.
1994: Forrest Gump won Best Picture over Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption. It’s unbelievable.
2005: Crash won over Brokeback Mountain.
2010: The King’s Speech wins over The Social Network.
2016: Spotlight beat The Revenant. What a shameful mistake.
And the list goes on…
That’s why people still paying attention to the Razzie Awards. It’s like the Oscars’ drunk, bitter cousin who tells the trues, even if it’s completely inappropriate. However Razzie also constantly failed (Stanley Kubrick was nominated for a Razzie Award for Worst Director for The Shining in 1981).
An award is a lovely thing, but it is far better to have earned the respect of your peers.” — Jean Paul Sartre
