A Song Of Fire And Ice
Science’s Own Game Of Thrones
Ice walls and dragons have little on the latest intrigue provided by NASA and other scientific studies. Westeros may have Jon Snow, Khaleesi, and an army of blue-eyed ice zombies but we have global climate change. It is at least as sensational and no one needs to wait for George R. R. Martin to finally finish his next book.
If you missed the headlines…
Scientists recently discovered 91 new volcanoes on the Western Anarctic Rift. This makes it the largest volcano chain in the world. Going further, the chain includes a super volcano that rivals the one at Yellow Stone.
This comes just a decade after new volcanoes were discovered by submarine studies along the Arctic Ocean’s Gakkel Ridge. And just a few years after eruptions in Russia, Iceland, and Alaska. It seems, where there is ice there is fire.
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Just a few days ago, these same volcanoes were blamed for triggering uprisings in ancient Egypt as well as ending former ice ages. Mantel plumes have been identified across the planet. They are a massive source of heat. Far greater than scientists were aware of just a few years ago. They are melting glaciers, depositing chemicals in the ice and atmosphere, and are proving to be incredibly adept at impacting the global climate. The correlations between climate change and volcanic activity over the last million years are clearly powerful.
With all of this volcanic discovery, one would be excused for wondering how this impacts climate change models. Are volcanoes causing the glaciers to melt? Surely it must add some uncertainty to modeling a very complex natural feedback loop? But global warming advocates are as adamant as Cersie Lannister. If Dragons and Zombie Armies can’t deter her, why should a few hundred volcanoes rattle the climate change crowd?
When observable science raises its ugly head, counter with theory.
Global warming is causing increased volcanic activity. This is what we are offered. Now while there are arguable merits to the theory, one would be forgiven for wondering why we so willingly accept a theory that boils down to melting ice causes fire? Especially given that the opposite is far more logical.
Differing theories now offer that rising sea levels cause increased volcanic activity, as do falling sea levels. Any change can be engineered to reinforce the climate change story. In typical poor analytic fashion, the path of least cognizant resistance is taken first. Tyrion Lannister couldn’t have spun it better.
Perhaps these theories are right? Although if ALL of them truly are, we have less hope than a Baratheon — seriously a stag among lions, wolves, and dragons? Perhaps the massive releases of gases caused by active volcanoes, now known to be five times their formerly understood levels, still pale in comparison to carbon dioxide. Or perhaps this is a Little Finger ploy to keep us distracted?
Climatology is a complex dance, much like the Game of Thrones. It is hard to understand which forces are aligned. The story is filled with constant change, new actors, and new relationships. Much is left to theory, hidden histories, and legacies of complex interactions. The world is a changing place and our weather may be no less confusing than a winter in Westeros. In the 70’s, some scientists believed that Winter Was Coming, but today we see Endless Summer in every new observation. Only time will tell which theories hold.
Take Two Lessons From Ned Stark
Ignorance is never the answer. It matters little which side of the debate you subscribe to, so long as you stay informed. Those who chose to stay ignorant, leaving it to those with greater ambitions, are still likely to suffer… or even lose their head.
But Ned was right to harp on discipline and honor — truth and science require it. There is a right way to play the game. Both the houses of Fire & Ice have proven far more disciplined and honor bound than those of the Stag & the Lion. While the story is not over, I suspect that discipline will overcome pride and honor & compassion will overcome … well the stag has already fallen.
Thanks for reading. Here is one of my favorite science sources.
