Lessons in Decision Science From The NFL
There Was Nothing “Reffing Unbelievable” About It
Another weekend of controversy in the NFL is in the books… and the headlines. It has been called “unbelievable”. It has been label as something some with “never get over”. Some are even calling on Roger Goodell to demand a redo.
If you weren’t paying attention… I am not sure why you opted to read this article, but this Sunday’s meeting of the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams featured a blown “no call” on a pass interference play. One that likely resulted in the Rams moving on to the Super Bowl. Sorry Saints fans— there are no true certainties here.
Of course, no one is really paying attention — and that is the real problem. Well, actually it is just one of three big problems. Each issue represents a great study in decision science, courtesy of America’s most controversial sport. Take a knee and we will go through them one by one.
1) When it comes to decision-making, all humans have attention deficit issues.
The NFL holds more time series data than most organizations can dream of. Three or more camera angles of every game played in the last few decades and then every one before that (minus an angle or two). There are endless statistics to boot. They are an organization that should have little issue paying attention to exactly what is happening on the field.
Recently that has led to a myriad of rule changes. The NFL has changed video review standards (and may again thanks to that Saints game). They have gone as far as defining “a catch” and “a football move”. All of this in an effort to make things less subjective, but did it work? I am not sure anyone is really asking.
People have short memories and are quickly distracted. No one this weekend is complaining about the new rules put in place to protect quarterbacks. Remember that? Did that work? We will likely never find out.
Remember the replacement refs? Back in 2012, they were considered a giant mistake. Were they? Would they have gotten last nights call right? I guess we will never know. Of course, who is even asking?
And why are we so focused on that call anyway? As an avid fan, I have seen dozens of really bad game changing calls this season. Some of them were reviewed. It didn’t always help. Ask Dallas and Philly fans. Blowing a whistle is a very subjective event, too. In fact, it happened to Philadelphia twice this season.
2) What the NFL should focus on.
The NFL has some useful press on the NFL officials review process. Of course, by this account, the officials at this weekend’s game were among the best performers. Perhaps none of this is really about some subjective rule calling? Perhaps it is really about the rules? Or just maybe — it is really about the system?
Let’s face it. Humans are not perfect. A small group of humans tasked with chasing a larger group around, needing to always be in the right place at the right time while making the right call, and not slowing down or down-right ruining our Sunday entertainment — are doomed. This is actually a really hard job.
But that doesn’t let the refs off the hook. Remember our replacement refs? No — forgot already. No worries — that contract ends this year. We will all be complaining again soon, but will we remember that one of the things the refs negotiated away was additional accountability for call quality? I am not saying what the NFL proposed was a golden ticket, but the union opposed any change that might result in lower compensation.
Proper financial incentive for better play calls is exactly what the NFL, the referees association, and all of us crazy fans actually need. We need the league to focus on improving game day feedback, to build a system that learns, and that course corrects. That is not to say that none of this is there today, but it is far too indirect and imprecise. The league needs to focus on improving it and that must include financial incentives.
3) What everyone else needs to focus on.
The Patriots are going to their 10th Super Bowl. Some would argue they have been the beneficiary of bad calls. Remember the tuck rule? Someone more objective might have noticed that the Kansas City defensive backs were all quite grabby in the NE v KC game. That didn’t seem to prevent them from winning.
Objectively speaking, the Patriots have probably been victim to just as much poor refereeing as anyone else over the last decade and a half. Yet, time and again they make their way to Super Bowl. Where am I going with this? A bad call, a bad play, or any other type of bad decision is inevitable. Heck, sometimes they aren’t even bad — they just didn’t work the way you thought.
Great strategy, most success, and decision science all share a common attribute — it must be able to overcome a bad decision or two. Things will almost never go your way for any sustained period of time. Set backs are inevitable and the competition is going to be there to exploit it when they do.
The NFL has to focus on the long view. They need to keep from being distracted by the latest weekend controversy. They need to invest in better developing the incentives and process of their system. But everyone else, including the Saints and Sean Payton, needs to “get over it”. Well, at least if they are interested in actually having real success. Adversity comes and goes — great strategists, successful organizations, and solid decision scientists learn from it. Others simply lay down and quit.
I have always tried to teach my players to be fighters. When I say that, I don’t mean put up your dukes and get in a fistfight over something. I’m talking about facing adversity in your life. There is not a person alive who isn’t going to have some awfully bad days in their lives. I tell my players that what I mean by fighting is when your house burns down, and your wife runs off with the drummer, and you’ve lost your job and all the odds are against you. What are you going to do? Most people just lay down and quit. Well, I want my people to fight back. — Bear Bryant
The funny thing is — it doesn’t sound like Bear Bryant would have considered a bad call or even play adversity. He seemed to have a much more dramatic definition of the things you need to overcome. Thanks for reading!
