April 16th- A Concern, Challenge, and Prediction
April 16th — Concern, Challenge, Prediction
I am going to keep this post as brief, factual, and sourced as possible. I am shaken to the core by what I have observed over the past few days. Wild assertions of federal powers in shocking contrast to a bizarre fixation on state’s rights, in the middle of the largest national logistics and health crisis since 1918. An insistence on opening the country on or before May 1st…
I knew things had really gotten out of hand when one of my two main scenarios for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 — Sloppy lab protocol at Wuhan BS4 lab (the other being the elegant savagery of evolutionary biology) was being espoused on the evening news.
My response to these developments comes in the form of a concern, a challenge, and a prediction.
A Concern
I work as a writer, trader, and analyst. I look at data day in and day out, in addition to producing articles. I have been doing this for two years since I was severely injured and forced to be indoors for an extended period. At that time, I learned to trade and read financial charts. A chart is a graphical representation of price over time, sometimes volume, it does not tell the larger story of what is happening in the world. If an asset suddenly performs well or poorly beyond all expectations — A significant gap in the S&P 500 price, or PG&E falling abruptly in October 2019 — it’s because there is a piece of information not reflected in the chart creating pressure.
When I look at the overall picture in the numbers surrounding COVID-19, there is only one thing I am sure of — how little we know. As of now, these questions are still very much open:
Why is their so much difference in mortality rate across countries/states/cities?
Why are immunocompromised patients, and those on PrEP turning up with a lower death rate?
Is COVID-19 classically airborne?
Demographics, social distancing, and the environment must play some part in the disparities. Still, it seems to me there are crucial pieces of the puzzle we are missing, and they are affecting our ability to make decisions about our safety. We desperately need to open the economy, bring back jobs, and get back to normal life, but how can we do that if we do not even understand the problem we face?
A Challenge
We need to collect accurate data in addition to the tests themselves, to help us put together the picture of who COVID is affecting, and how. We could also use a randomized testing system to find the national infection rate, 10,000 tests would give us the number to a high degree of accuracy. Good ideas abound for how to make the best use of the limited testing resources we have. A swift increase in testing capacity and logistics should be priority number one, so we can make informed decisions about how to go about opening our economy and getting people back to work. Hopefully, in this process, we can reconcile the conflicting data and can duplicate our most successful outcomes in all our communities.
The second, though equally important priority, needs to be getting money into the hands of the American people before May 1st. Everyone knows someone suffering or is suffering themselves. People need food, they need to pay rent. We have watched the treasury pour out money to companies while people go hungry. Some protests have begun in Michigan. As other large western nations roll out wage replacement, Americans are struggling with a failing unemployment system.
The time for political theatrics on both sides of the aisle is over. Without comprehensive, lasting stimulus for businesses and people — hunger, homelessness, massive defaults, and stress on our entire economy will be the result. I am not suggesting getting this done will be easy. But we have the wealth. Friends and family are losing everything, just trying to stay alive.
The need is now.
The American people deserve some security to weather what we all collectively have to in order to make it through.
Which brings me finally to —
A Prediction
I am not an epidemiologist. Or a mathematician. I am just a concerned citizen that can read the writing on the walls. I have had my family preparing since late February. By March, we were wearing masks, and observing protocols for an airborne pathogen. I have been aware of environmental accumulation — there’s a reason they are spraying down whole cities with bleach in Asia. The first entry of this blog lays out my timeline, which has been accurate, except for the amount of severe infection we would have in the Bay Area by this time. I knew I would be writing more, despite my desire not to have to author these pieces.
From all I have observed, I can say this is indeed a novel coronavirus. At every turn, it has challenged our understanding of evolution, biology, virology, epidemiology. It has properties of spread, survivability, and contagion that make it a unique opponent, each new dot we connect is a surprising addition to our understanding. There are grumblings of a resurgence in countries easing restrictions, though it is too early to tell with certainty.
With all these data points on the table, my prediction is simple: Opening the United States on or before May 1st, without significant testing and substantial aid for the American people in place, will be the most costly blunder in the history of America, possibly the world. In terms of loss of life, and economy.
You know hell has frozen over, that things are dangerous when public health experts and the CEOs of American companies are in agreement about stopping companies from making money.
What lies ahead are some of the most important decisions our country has ever faced. I pray we meet them armed with the knowledge and support we need to make it through this.
