Daily Covid-Insights and Charts — April 2
Deaths in the US hit new high globally. Deaths in the UK quadruple over two days and may soon surpass Spain’s pace, which is the steepest. The weekly death growth rate is declining across the board (except the UK), which could indicate that we are nearing the peak.
Before jumping into the data, two new reports that can shed some light on the length of the lockdown measures in North America came out yesterday. The first one is an excellent op-ed by Bill Gates in the Washington Post, where among his three recommendations is a national shutdown in the US for up to another ten weeks, which would take us to mid-June. The second one was reported by the National Post, which is a leaked document from the Government of Canada that their “best-case scenario” is July. The “sometime in the Summer” approximation that we had before stands. I do fear that North Americans are not going to be able to follow the shutdown guidelines as well either through their making or through policymakers that flinch due to the economic impact, which in turn will extend the entire timeline and cause more fatalities.
Deaths
1) The US has 1059 deaths in a single day — highest for any country in a single day. The US total deaths have surpassed 5000, sitting at 5138 as of yesterday.
2) If you look at the Cases vs Deaths chart, the US total death curve will likely pass Italy’s later today — meaning the virus will soon be killing people in the US faster than it did in Italy. Yesterday was Day #29 for the US and had a total of 5138 deaths. Italy was at 5476 on Day #29 and 6077 on by Day #30.
4) Spain has the steepest death curve, meaning it is the country where the virus has killed the fastest with 9053 people by day #30.
5) Spain (864), France (509), and the UK (743) all had their highest number of deaths on record yesterday.
6) The UK number is significant as the UK reported 180 deaths just two days ago, 381 the day after and 743 yesterday. More than doubling a day — 4x (quadrupled) over two days. This surge has also brought the UK’s death curve dangerously close to Spain’s.
7) Canada recorded 13 deaths, surpassing a total of 100, but delays in reporting are likely masking 40–50 others (source).
8) The 7-day Compounded Daily Growth Rate (CDGR) for fatalities is declining for all countries charted except for the UK. And for consecutive periods for most of them. That may be the sign of getting close to a peak; however, I think that’s far from certain. Strained health systems may be underreporting deaths like in Italy (source), and larger countries like the US and Canada can have a further outbreak in states and provinces that are currently reporting low numbers.
Cases
1) The US reported 27,103 new confirmed cases yesterday. Highest on record for the US or any other country globally.
2) The US now has over 23% of all confirmed cases globally (216,721 vs. 711,716). Please note that the number of confirmed cases is highly dependent on the scale of testing, which has been getting better in the US.
3) Germany is on day #31 and is now at 73,522 confirmed cases — highest for any country that’s been on day #31 so far, including China or Italy. Germany has had the highest number of tests done per capita among most western countries, which is the reason behind this high number.
4) After their first day of no new cases the day before, South Korea reported 190 new cases yesterday. 190 is close enough to their typical two-day pace, so I’m going to assume that no new cases two days ago was a reporting glitch.
5) The UK reported 4324 new cases yesterday, their highest on record for a single day.
