Covid Journal
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Covid Journal

The Tears (Tiers) Have Started

Image by Wordswag - words by Michael de Groot

The UK government announced the lockdown tiers (tears) for England on Thursday 26 November 2020.

The difference being this time the tiers are tougher and the rule stricter, which in effect means that the majority of us in England only, like 55 million out of 67 million people, are still in a partial or even a full lockdown.

Apart from the Christmas let up for 5 days, 23 December until 27 December, with the potential for massive virus spreading, the duration of the new tougher tiers is unknown. Considering that furlough pay for employees will continue until the end of March, it’s very likely that these new tiers will stay in place until then. We might be hopeful that the vaccine will save us, but my guess is it won’t as yet. First it has to be approved, yes as of today it hasn’t yet been approved, I bet some hurdles will need to be overcome there.

Secondly, it will be given to the most vulnerable citizens in society and we will have to evaluate how they react to it, could they get unnecessarily ill, it could delay things even more. Thirdly not everyone will want to be inoculated, at least 30% won’t and that includes me!

Inevitably we will get imposed rules by companies and maybe government to suggest that unless you have the vaccine your life will potentially be limited. No problem, I’m happy to live as a monk!

Throughout this pandemic I’ve predicted the way things would unfold and I’ve pretty much been right every single time. The main reason for this is the trend. People believe that when good news is delivered like the vaccine or numbers falling that we can get back to normal. The fact is the vaccine isn’t even being rolled out as yet, for god sake it hasn’t even been approved for roll-out!

The level of infections is 4 to 5 times higher compared to what we experienced in the UK in March and April. How can you possibly believe that this means we could relax rules? The trend also has been that infections spread first in the younger population and then spreads into the older population, the most vulnerable etc. So think about it, as students from universities, who have been seriously contagious, are being told to go home for Christmas and mix with their friends and relatives at home, the spread will start all over, leading to another spike in January and February, even before the vaccine is able to be rolled out.

The Trend is your Friend. The trend is your friend” is one of the best known sayings in stock market trading, although its message is incomplete. The full version should be, “The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.”

https://education.howthemarketworks.com/the-trend-is-your-friend

My prediction has always been that we’re on a 3–5 year journey with the Pandemic and an even longer journey with the recession, which will be a 7–9 year journey. Society needs to be totally transformed to a new way of learning and working. We will definitely do more things online, which means learning and working will change forever. This means a massive impact on the way that high streets work too. We have been overstepped for many decades. Our parents and their parents never needed so much stuff in their lives as we do today.

It means more retailers, brands and shops will go bust and be removed from the high street. The biggest winner in the high street has been the internet and the biggest shop in the world is called Amazon. That’s where most people have turned to buy their stuff. Home delivery has exploded. The UK has always lead the way with online shopping and now it is likely to have a further exponential increase.

My advice is stay calm and carry on by being remote from other people. Become comfortable with you closest loved ones and your own company, because you will be with yourself and them for a very long time to come.

Stay well and be safe.

Michael de Groot

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This is my personal journal about the Corona Virus (Covid 19)

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Michael de Groot

Michael de Groot

Whiteboard Animations Producer, Storyteller and Podcast Host at Staying Alive UK Storytelling Productions | www.stayingaliveuk.com

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