COVID-19, Remote Work & Going Rural
April 29 was the first time I put a mask on, on the pretext of doing some shopping which has been the only reason for us to leave home since the COVID-19 outbreak began. However, the need to get some air was way more urgent than that of buying some groceries, as COVID-19 became a serious matter for my family in Spain. Ironically, getting some air ended up being more daunting than I had bargained for with the mask, and my anxiety levels so high. Luckily, I managed to calm down and take my mind and my emotions for a therapeutic stroll.
As I bought the groceries and chatted with neighbours here and there — always at an appropriate distance — I realized that COVID-19 may accomplish what many Governments have miserably failed to achieve for decades: repopulating rural areas and distributing wealth more evenly in their country.
Consider this, as remote work becomes the norm for many millions of workers, and social distance continues to be an imperative until we get a vaccine that is effective, there is this weak signal that may become a megatrend:
Will COVID-19 be the spark for people living in big cities to take the plunge and go rural, once and for all?
On one end, we have families questioning why they keep paying high rents for cramped apartments in the city, with shorter and shorter rental contracts that add to their feeling of economic insecurity, when they could be living a more relaxed lifestyle in the countryside/seaside with more square meters, and in a place where the likelihood of getting infected may be drastically reduced compared to a city.
On the other end, we also have roommate households that comprise a significant portion of the urban population. Yes, I refer to those who share an apartment, often with complete strangers in order to afford living in the city, enjoy its lifestyle, and have better job prospects. What about them?
Would these beleaguered souls, able to stay home and work remotely, but unable to take advantage of the pleasures of city life, still want to keep living the houseshare lifestyle where day-in-day-out they come to the sad realization that a bed alone does not a home make? Would they keep paying for a room, when for the same money they can get an apartment or a house in a small village?
The fact is that moving out and going rural is something pretty easy for most living in the so-called developed countries: a powerful internet connection, a good highway infrastructure, and public services (health, education, and so on…)
I know what you are thinking: shelter-in-place won’t last forever, and bit by bit we will progressively get back to normal. Yes, that is true, in fact, Portugal returned progressively to normal on May 4. But until we have a viable vaccine, the new normal will be one of social distancing, donning your mask, not forgetting your latex gloves and alcohol-gel, or natural selection will decide for itself who is the weakest link.
So is this for real? What are the odds of this weak signal, according to my way of thinking becoming a megatrend? Let’s bring some perspective to this question by looking at the data.
What Can Data Tell Us?
In terms of how many people could potentially be impacted by this weak signal, the number points to over 315 million Europeans, or 75% of Europeans, which is the exact amount of those living in cities, according to Eurostat. But we can be more precise than this.
Our target is those households with an excessive housing cost overburden rate, which Eurostat establishes when the expenditure on housing exceeds 40% of disposable income. Well, according to the Housing Europe Observatory, 10.2% of households in the EU fall under this category. However, this share increases to 37.8% when taking into consideration households at risk of falling under the poverty line.
Now, as regards people sharing apartments, unfortunately, I could not find statistics on Europe, but as a reference point, in 2017, in the US, it was estimated that nearly 32% of the overall American adult population was living in a shared household.
I hope these facts have given you an idea of to what extent the population may be pondering the idea of moving out from the big cities and going rural. But let’s move forwards as there is more ground to cover.
Shelter-in-Place & Going Rural
Numbers aside, these weeks in shelter-in-place have also had an impact on our lives that may reinforce this Weak Signal.
Many people for the first time in many years have become aware of how blue the sky is, and even seen the horizon for the first time since who knows when, before the air in their cities became so polluted that the idea of a blue sky was almost nothing but a dream. Check this article from the World Economic Forum.
Others have had the opportunity to listen to birds singing as the streets and skies went quieter and quieter. This silence has also allowed them to pay attention to the noise from within and, also, for the first time, many are questioning their own lifestyle choices, and, when that happens, new scenarios begin to unfold.
Even Governments are setting new paradigms for urban mobility to make sure we don’t lose sight of blue skies, and we keep tuning in to Radio Dawn Chorus. Check out this initiative in Paris, or this one in Milan, to mention just two of them.
These experiences may further convince these citizens of how going rural and quieter is the way to go, provided they can work remotely.
So the questions to be answered are: Is this a weak-signal? Will it become a megatrend? I can’t make my mind up...
What do you think?
Looking forward to reading your comments. Until then, let me share with you what I will be talking about in the next article: Fashion luxury’s makeover.
