From Farms to Prisons: Emerging hotspots in rural America

Moksha Menghaney
Atlas Insights
Published in
4 min readJul 14, 2020

Weekly Highlights of the Geography of COVID by the US COVID Atlas Team

Relaxed stay-at-home orders and reopening of multiple states has led to an explosion of COVID-19 cases in the US, with more than a million new cases recorded from June 15 till July 10. From farms in Washington & Oregon to the prisons in the South East, multiple outbreaks of novel coronavirus are emerging across the country. As the total number of cases in the country crossed 3 million, many states have put a hold on their reopening plans.

On Friday, July 10 the US added 69,000 new cases, the highest one day jump yet.

Spatial Distribution of 7-Day Average of Daily New COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Per 10,000 Persons, as of July 10

Lee County (Arkansas), Stewart County (Georgia), and Grenada County (Mississippi) have seen the highest population-adjusted rates of new cases in the past 14 days. All three are part of the persistent SouthEast cluster spanning across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

Many counties in this cluster have a higher proportion of vulnerable populations and fall under the traditional Black Belt (Southern US counties that were at least 40% Black or African American in the 2000 Census).

Lee County, AR has added more than 200 new cases per 10,000 persons in the past 14 days with a cumulative rate of more than 870 cases per 10,000 persons. Majority of these cases are from the East Arkansas Regional Unit Correctional Facility but community spread is increasing and the county has not mandated face masks yet.

On the other hand, following a public plea from top medical officials, in the past week the city of Grenada implemented mask requirements and other restrictions to control the spread of disease in the county. A bunch of cases in Stewart county are linked to an outbreak in the ICE detention center.

In urban areas, Los Angeles, Maricopa, and Miami Dade all saw the largest rise in cases, with each adding more than 16,000 new cases over the past 7 days. Multiple counties in Florida and Texas are also seeing a significant increase in new cases.

Farms and food-processing plants are shifting the narrative in Washington & Oregon

Yakima county in eastern Washington with 318 cases per 10,000 persons has become the new epicenter in the state. Tri-cities in the neighboring Benton and Franklin counties are also seeing a surge and recorded 123 cases per 10,000 people. Agriculture plays an important role in the area and outbreaks have been traced back to farms, food packing and other food processing plants.

One news outlet mentioned that a large proportion of cases are being seen among the Hispanics due to their lower access to healthcare, tight housing conditions and working in essential care services. Some of the neighboring counties like Umatilla,Oregon are at capacity with hospital beds and are concerned about future need for hospitalizations. Another outbreak in a prison was also noted. And even though Washington state has paused reopening and mandated mask wearing, the adherence is low leading to concerns of further outbreaks.

“Cherries” by Oregon Department of Agriculture is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Copy and Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 Cases Per 10K Persons in Washington state

Farming community in the region is taking multiple steps to keep the virus in check but increasing costs and lower exports are stressing the economy. And with an upcoming harvest season, concerns about further spread are rising. Other sources of income like rodeos and tourism have been cancelled. With urban areas drawing all the focus & resources early on, rural areas are struggling to effectively manage the crisis with crippling economies.

Problems in rural Arkansas continue to mount

We are seeing multiple clusters emerge in semi-rural, rural parts of the country like Idaho, South Dakota, and Texas. One such cluster emerging is in central Arkansas spanning across Yell, Pope, Hot Spring, Conway, and Saline counties. On July 3, the governor issued an executive order permitting cities to implement an ordinance requiring mandatory face coverings.

Spatial Distribution of Total COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Per 10,000 Persons, as of July 10

The state is already reeling from a breakout in the northwest along the Missouri border in Benton, Washington and Madison counties, with a rate of 157 cases per 10,000 persons as of July 10. Their neighbor in Missouri, McDonald county is seeing an explosion of cases from a food processing plant. With no masking requirements in place for the community, multiple neighboring counties in Arkansas and Oklahoma are seeing a rise in cases.

The SouthEast cluster spanning LA, MS, AL and GA is also spilling into parts of Arkansas. Some of these breakouts are in correctional facilities & prisons. With the state still on track to open schools coming Fall, medical officials are already raising alarms over the rising numbers and the expected pressure on hospitals in the future.

  • All geographical analysis uses USA Facts data.
  • All analysis and month-to-date numbers are as of July 10th, 2020, unless otherwise specified.

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Moksha Menghaney
Atlas Insights

Quantitative Researcher, currently at Centre for Spatial Data Science, University of Chicago