Spatial heterogeneity on the news
Meet the Press uses Atlas data to explore the impact of holiday travel on spatial COVID bubbles
During the pandemic, many people have become entrenched in their own bubbles, whether by necessity or choice. These bubbles range from our political values and media consumption to our social circles and physical geographies. But for the holidays this year, those bubbles are ‘bursting’ as more people decide to travel to gather with family and friends. With COVID vaccines now widely available for adults and children over age 5, there is an added factor for individuals, families, and public health officials to consider: COVID vaccine bubbles.
Last Sunday, on NBC News’ Meet the Press, Chuck Todd examined the impact of Thanksgiving travel and gatherings on Americans’ spatial and political bubbles, citing data from the US Covid Atlas. In his “Data Download” segment, Todd highlighted the uneven distribution of COVID vaccination rates across counties within the same state, showing how vaccination rates and political affiliations appear to be more closely associated than ever. You can watch the full clip here.
As people travel for the holidays, questions inevitably arise about the COVID case and vaccine rates in different communities. Nationwide, among the remaining 27% Americans who are unvaccinated, 17% of them identify as Democrats, 17% identify as Independent, and 60% identify as Republican, according to Kaiser Family Foundation. This suggests that areas with high rates of Republican voters would also see lower vaccination rates.
“But just because it’s blue state-red state”, Todd notes, “you can live close together [within those states] and end up essentially crashing into each others’ blue and red bubbles.”
I liked my colleague Marynia Kolak’s reaction to Todd’s commentary:
“Spatial heterogeneity is on the news — finally.”
Marynia’s right. Todd was describing spatial heterogeneity, the uneven distribution of a phenomenon or population within a defined area. The “red state / blue state” divide doesn’t capture the variation within states, county to county.
Citing US Covid Atlas’ county-level vaccination data (which we source from the CDC), Todd shows how two counties in North Carolina, Mecklenburg County (Todd: “A big Biden county”) and Stanly County (“A big Trump county”) are just a 30 minute’s drive away but have vastly different vaccination rates. Mecklenberg is 59% fully vaccinated, while Stanley County is at 39%, as of November 28. This example underscores how one county can have high vaccination rates and its neighbor can have low rates — the challenge presented by patchwork vaccine adoption.
While the virus does not recognize county or state boundaries, public policies and public health measures do. This not only affects COVID rates, it affects hospital capacity to treat COVID patients as well as non-COVID emergencies, elective surgeries, and other healthcare services, and may also affect tourism and travel spending during the holidays.
You can go deeper and compare vaccination and other COVID data from those two counties directly on the Atlas. The local paper Stanley News & Press also highlighted reactions from local leaders to the MTP segment after it aired.
It is encouraging to see Meet the Press emphasizing the importance of public, county-level data, and looking at the data in different ways to better understand the potential impact of holiday travel on your health and the health of surrounding communities. You can explore more COVID outcomes and vaccination rate updates in your community at uscovidatlas.org/map.
