Who will win the AI arms race?
The second in our contributions by writer and journalist Philip Ellis
Artificial intelligence is the paradigm-shifting technology of our age, poised to change the way we live to a greater degree than other similarly hyped fields like virtual reality or the blockchain. When it comes to who will dominate this massive industry, the popular narrative is that the duopoly of the United States and China is already a done deal, but in fact a number of countries are stepping up their investment in AI readiness.
“It’s a space race redux, where world superpowers battle to define generations of technology to come,” writes Quartz’s Dave Gershgorn, adding: “Unlike space, there’s no clear finish line.”
Silicon Valley is an obvious contender for AI supremacy, with the GAFAM companies (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) behind the majority of the last decade’s disruptive technologies. Virtual assistants Alexa and Siri have been the most overt introduction of AI into our daily lives, and human-machine interaction via voice is already starting to reshape consumer behaviour; one in four Google searches are conducted aloud, a figure which ComScore estimates will rise to 50 per cent by 2020. And as far as these vocal avatars are concerned, a great many people have already given their loyalty (and their data) to market-leading brands.
However, a new student tax bill currently working its way through Congress threatens to price talent out of STEM fields and force grad students to pursue their endeavours elsewhere, creating a “brain drain” in the States. “The U.S. government’s moves come at an inopportune moment given how competitive AI is becoming, and how much emphasis other nations are placing on the technology,” writes Will Knight of the MIT Technology Review. “Over the long term, the consequences could also be felt not just in academia but in the U.S. technology scene, which has often fed off academic advances.”
Additionally, there is some concern that the United States is not sufficiently prepared for the potential mass displacement of jobs that will accompany the AI-empowered new industrial revolution. As the University of Pretoria’s Professor Lorenzo Fioramonti points out: “The major difference with the past is that today’s automation technologies are highly intelligent and able to learn.” According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Automation Readiness Index, which assessed the innovation environment, education policies, and public workforce development of 25 developed economies in anticipation of this sea change, the United States has fallen behind in taking the necessary steps to prepare workers and safeguard employment opportunities.
South Korea, Germany and Singapore were the top three ranking states in the index, all of which have earmarked considerable funds for the development of AI and robotics, as well as introducing government-supported lifelong learning programmes which will equip citizens with the skills and training necessary to the pursuit of fulfilling careers in an increasingly automated society. The whitepaper also highlights an additional challenge that will affect many countries, including those with established vocational training schemes; namely, that they may well find their existing learning programmes have too much of a focus on low-skilled jobs to be fit-for-purpose for the next generation.
China, meanwhile, is forging ahead with President Xi Jingping’s plans to build a $150 billion AI industry by 2030. The BAT tech giants (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) are pouring significant funds into AI, and at last year’s AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Chinese authors made up 23 per cent of scientists presenting their research.
Alibaba is currently the country’s biggest spender on R&D, with founder Jack Ma pledging to invest $15 billion in transformational technologies in the next three years. The company is already working with governments to roll out AI-powered, cloud-based solutions both in China and abroad, including automated metro kiosks in Shanghai, and smart traffic flow solutions in Malaysia.
Regarding consumer devices, Western brands have struggled to enter China for a number of reasons, among them being the challenges inherent in adapting AI assistants to a new language, syntax, and cultural context. This leaves the BAT triumvirate free to bring their own proprietary devices to market, secure in the knowledge that they are responding to an increasingly voracious appetite for AI-powered products. According to PwC’s Global Consumer Insights survey, China is one of the countries most interested in AI-enabled gadgets; more than half of Chinese consumers are looking to buy an AI device (that’s double the number of Britons and Americans) and 21 per cent already own one.
China stands on the brink of widespread AI adoption, with an innovation ecosystem that presents fewer obstacles to growth than elsewhere in the world. The Internet penetration rate might only be 56 per cent, but at 772 million users, its online population outnumbers that of the United States. A vast domestic market certainly helps in the herculean task of gathering enough data to build robust AI systems, and China’s communist government and comparatively unregulated data marketplace means there are fewer restrictions surrounding consumer privacy, which will provide tech companies with forward momentum (at least in the short term).
But what about the United Kingdom? Largely overlooked in this arena, British innovators are still very much in the running, if a recent report is to be believed. Published by the House of Lords in April 2018, it suggests that the United Kingdom definitely has the potential to become a world leader in AI.
“The UK has a unique opportunity to shape AI positively for the public’s benefit and to lead the international community in AI’s ethical development, rather than passively accept its consequences,” says Lord Clement-Jones, Chairman of the House of Lords Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence. “The UK contains leading AI companies, a dynamic academic research culture, and a vigorous start-up ecosystem as well as a host of legal, ethical, financial and linguistic strengths.”
Entitled ‘AI in the UK: Ready, willing and able?’, the report outlines a number of recommendations on navigating this new territory, with a focus on future-proofing workplaces, avoiding monopolies, and ensuring that ethics are built into AI systems from the very beginning.
“Where they lack in-house experience, UK businesses should work with AI expert partners which can outline definable ROI and clear use cases using today’s proven technology,” says Doron Underwood, AI product marketing manager at Amdocs. “These experts can help upskill staff on the nuances of the AI technology they are using, whilst ensuring they understand the consequences of using it erroneously.”
What is becoming increasingly clear is that the measures of success in the AI arms race do not solely relate to technological capability, but equally importantly to a nation’s preparedness for how to live, work and thrive in an automated, AI-enabled society. While being “the best” at developing AI technology might be the first thing on everybody’s minds, big picture concerns surrounding ethics, privacy and fairness will play a potentially greater role in determining who ends up being the real winner.
