The un-targetables

Why we need to rethink our audiences

In the 1992 U.K. General Election, the tabloid newspaper The Sun famously declared “It’s The Sun [sic] wot won it”.

It advocated for the Conservative party, and claimed it was responsible for mobilising critical swing voters amongst its working class readership — the C2DE socio-demographic group.

Known for its somewhat exaggerated claims of self-importance, there is nevertheless some substance to The Sun’s claim. In a time before social media, the U.K. press had an outsized influence on national debate and opinion. And the swing amongst C2DEs proved decisive in delivering an unexpected Conservative win.

Fast forward to recent 2017 General Election, and the outcome was very different, despite The Sun’s strong — and often vitriolic — support for the Conservatives (mirrored by other right wing tabloids).

Now, there are many complex factors that played out in the result of the election. But some commentators have been hypothesising that the influence of print media is past its high water mark and is in decline. There may be some truth in that, and it could certainly be borne out in the post-election analysis, but hold the front pages: according to post-election research by Lord Ashcroft, the Conservative share of vote amongst DEs increased from 26% in the 2015 General Election to 34% in 2017.

Could The Sun claim some responsibility?

Maybe. But there’s potentially a more interesting twist to the story — and one that points to a far wider shift with bigger ramifications.

Lord Ashcroft’s research also found that Labour’s share of affluent AB1s rose from 27% to 35%.

It also revealed that Leave voters in the EU referendum plumped roughly 2:1 for the Conservatives, Remainers voting 2:1 for Labour.

This tally suggests ‘traditional’ voting patterns were heavily influenced (and disrupted) by Brexit or ‘open’ vs ‘closed’ views on Britain, transcending income as a prime determinant. A material proportion of affluent Remainers voted Labour, as working class Leavers voted Conservative. The Labour gain in Kensington (one of the more affluent constituencies in London) is particularly emblematic of this seismic ripple — 68% voted to remain in the EU and it has never before had a Labour MP.

As noted earlier, there were many factors in the result — and so it would be wrong to be too reductive. The data wonks pouring over the results will undoubtedly unearth a myriad of inter-connected and complex insights as to why people voted the way they did. But nonetheless, the broader point will remain true: the traditional left vs right political axis is eroding, and there is an undeniable shift toward identity politics.

It means that conceived wisdom on voting patterns across socio-demographic groups has been challenged, if not turned upside down. And it’s not just in the U.K.: witness the U.S. Presidential campaign.

This for me, in my view as a marketing communications professional, should be a clarion call for brands to move to a new model for consumer segmentation and targeting.

There are trailblazers already using social identity (of which we all have multiple, distinct and overlapping identities), combined with dynamic behavioural signatures, to drive more fluid campaigns (not just in terms of channels, but also brand persona). Demographic profiling will remain part of the picture, but those who still rely on it exclusively will only ever have a static view of their target customers. And as we’ve seen from the 2017 General Election, that could confound expected results.