A Challenge For Analysts & Football Fans
Can you predict the outcome AND a Leading Indicator?
Analyst wannabes bring opinion. Real Analysts bring data. Can you isolate a leading indicator, a KPI, a driver that will determine this year’s Super Bowl winner? Here is a short article to kick off a new contest from the folks at Corsair’s Institute. The contest rules will be at the end of the article.
What constitutes a Leading Indicator?
This is a little more complicated than what it might seem. Leading Indicators predict an outcome in advance and for the purposes of this new contest, we could leave it there. We are asking for you to predict the winner of the Super Bowl. However, many outcomes are not so discreet. This will make our contest easier, but the actual prediction a bit more challenging.
Many companies simply seek improved performance over a prior month, quarter, or year. They are not predicting an “equal to” they are seeking to assure “greater than”. So naturally, they become more tolerant of leading indicators that signal higher performance, rather than specific performance.
It all boils down to whether there is a clean and direct link between your chosen indicator and your given outcome. If there is, it should serve you in either capacity. If, on the other hand, there are issues with timing, other less predictable factors, or just weaker correlation in general — you may end up choosing a more ‘directional’ indicator.
A quick example: If the Falcons score more points than the Patriots, they will win the Super Bowl. In certain cases, this could be a perfect LI. If for example the Falcons are leading by 17 points with less than 1 minute left in the game, you can rest assured that your expected outcome of a Falcon win is inevitable. If you based your prediction on turn-overs, yards, or red zone efficiency… this outcome will be far less inevitable. In the latter examples, it may very well be true that the Falcons are outperforming on their Leading Indicator, but were still unable to win the game.
So back to the contest…
It is simple really. Drop us a comment below or drop us a tweet (use #SBLIndicator), hit us on facebook or even instagram — basically anywhere you can find us.
In your comment include two things — the team that will win AND the leading indicator that you believe will show the way. Adding a few words as to why is encouraged and will add to your bragging rights if you prove correct! Here are some examples.
Falcons win! Super Bowl winners must be able to run the ball. Atlanta has average 100 yds per game in the Post Season. They will compile even more vs Patriot D.
Patriots win again! These two teams had the highest yds per reception in the post season, but NE played tougher defenses. Pats will have higher average in SBLI and win!
It is that simple. As we did with BI Madness last year, we will spend the next two weeks calling out our top submissions. BI Madness got a tremendous number of views and votes from around the world. 10K additional followers later we are hoping #SBLIndicators will outperform. So leave your comments below, recommend, and share. While bragging rights are awesome, getting your know-it-all friends on record being wrong — might be even better.
Good luck! And thanks for reading!
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