Analytics Lessons from Futurama — Proof vs Prediction

Good news, everyone!

I’m all about finding lessons on business and analytics from any source. I am also about identifying and hyping uncertainty wherever I find it.

I’ve read my work. The evidence checks out. I’m very good at identifying gaps and uncertainty. But that’s not why we’re here today.

So let’s get to it: Futurama is 100% true. Fact, not fiction.

Everything in the show is true: aliens, drunken robots, successful cryogenics, mutants, even the heads in jars.

Proof

Sorry, did you say that’s ridiculous?

I stand by it.

I’m sure most of you think otherwise. You could ask any number of people about the show and its future. They would agree with you.

It doesn’t matter how many people agree. The Futurama writers destroyed all of your arguments about the show being fiction with one title card.

Game. Set. Match.

Futurama begins in the year 3000 AD.

Unless you’ve been there (then?) in your time machine and brought back some definitive proof, it doesn’t matter what either of us have to say.

You can’t prove it won’t happen.

Timing

The entire fields of analytics is based on the search for insight.

Wait, that’s not quite it. It is based on the search for useful insight.

We mine the available data to find the bits that can be extracted and distilled into meaningful insights for our personal or business advantages.

The data that is available to us, however, has one significant limitation. It only describes what has already happened. It describes the past and, if we believe the hype about streaming and real-time analytics, it covers the present.

Don’t be fooled. It’s only about the past.

Really. Take a picture with your phone. Right now. I know you have it.

Bender won’t always be around to help

There. That brand new picture represents the past, and the information it contains is getting older, and less relevant, with every passing second.

I’m not trying to depress you. Just making a point.

I’m trying to impress upon you why predictive analytics is such a popular field. We attempt to use past information to understand the present and predict the future.

Prediction

Forecasting is a powerful force in analytics. In anything, really.

Knowing what has happened is important both for reporting and for evaluation of our business practices.

Knowing what is happening now helps us address problems and adapt our strategy accordingly.

Knowing what will happen allows us to make plans to address potential problems and take advantage of likely opportunities.

Predictive Analytics is a growing and lucrative field for a good reason. Knowledge of the future is invaluable because it is, at best, an informed guess.

Uncertainty

Back to my point. Futurama is a work of fact, not fiction.

All glory to the Hypnotoad

Prediction is a tricky business. We do the best we can.

I’m not saying predictive analytics is useless. We can derive valuable insights from our analysis of past data and proven techniques.

We should always look at the available information and use every tool at our disposal to determine, to the best of our abilities, what will happen so that we can plan appropriately.

Just don’t get caught in the trap of thinking that you can prove what will happen in the future. You are making educated guesses.

Try to make them useful. Don’t make the rest of us look bad.

In conclusion…

It’s true. It’s all true. Alien visits. Intelligent robots. Interstellar travel sponsored by Mom’s Friendly Robots.

Matt Groening has seen the future, and he decided to show us how human society will progress over the next millennium.

You can’t prove it won’t happen.

For more lessons in Creative Analytics, take a look at…

Hitchhiker’s Guide to Analytics — Uncertainty

Comic Book Lessons in Analytics — Loki