Comic Book Lessons in Analytics — Two-Face

Let’s See What the Coin Has To Say

Everyone who knows Batman from comics, cartoons, video games, or movies is familiar with Harvey Dent. Two-Face. The passionate former prosecutor and Gotham City District Attorney who was permanently scarred when gangster Sal Maroni threw acid into his face during a trial.

Yes, I saw The Dark Knight. Nolan changed it for the film. Keep up.

Harvey Dent is now a criminal mastermind who is obsessed with the number two and makes all of his important or tricky decisions by flipping a coin.

Weird? Yes. Crazy? Yes. Effective? I don’t know. Hold on a minute.

…Heads. Yes, it’s effective.

Effective?

Don’t worry. I haven’t given up on the analytic process just yet. Wait.

…Tails. No, I’m still on board.

You can argue the rationale behind Dent’s method, but you cannot argue its value in terms of simplicity and effectiveness.

Stuck between two options? Flip a coin. You have your answer. Now you can move on to the next thing.

Now tell me you get things done that quickly and definitively, with no doubt and no hesitation.

You wish.

OK, but that doesn’t work for me

Maybe it should. I mean, Two-Face has managed to run his business this way for decades.

He even landed two movie deals (Not pictured: Tommy Lee Jones)

But I’m not actually suggesting you replace your planning and analytic processes with the flip of a coin. Am I? Let me see.

…No, I’m not.

Good. That would have been a short article.

I am, however, saying that I see two real benefits in considering it. And I have found value in adopting an analogous method in specific situations.

Both approaches are applicable when you have to decide between two options and have exhausted your normal processes and discussion.

Benefit #1: Heads or Tails

Truthfully, I am only including this bit because it’s a viable method of determining which of two options you prefer. It’s not the main point here.

When all else fails, flip a coin. While the coin is in the air, you will almost always know which result (heads or tails) you want to see. Or you will be either happy or disappointed with the result. Either way, you know.

You probably don’t want to see this result

That’s all you need. Your choice was already made. You just needed to accept it. Now you need to understand why you made it.

I thought you’d have figured that out by now.

Benefit #2: When All Else Fails

Here is the point I’m trying to make. When working in analytics, or project planning, or any other process requiring choices or decisions, you should always find the data you need to make an informed choice. In a perfect world, every choice would be an informed choice.

But it’s not a perfect world, is it?

Nope

Sometimes, no matter how much data you gather, no matter how many times you review the “pros and cons”, no matter how much time you spend discussing and debating options… neither answer really seems better than the other.

At that point, flipping a coin might be random, but at least you’ll get an answer. Then you take that result and move on.

Yes, really. It’s better to have an arbitrary process than no process at all. And it really is fair, totally unswayed by personal, political, or petty bias.

Take the call, document it, and move on to the next step.

Alternatively…

Full disclosure: I fully subscribe to the philosophy of “an arbitrary choice is better than no choice at all”, but I do not flip a coin when I’m stuck.

My own method is less random but no less arbitrary. Not sure whether I should share all of my secrets, though. Tell you what- hold on a minute.

…Hmm. Sorry.

I’ll have to tell you next time.

For more analytics lessons from the bad guys…

Comic Book Lessons in Analytics — The Joker

Comic Book Lessons in Analytics — The Riddler

Comic Book Lessons in Analytics — Brainiac

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