Hitchhiker’s Guide to Analytics — Ruler of the Universe
You may sing to his cat if you like
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy has a few things to say about how the galaxy is actually managed. There is a functioning government, in place since the last days of the old Republic, which is led by a elected President.
The President of the Galaxy holds no actual power for one simple reason.
Anyone who wants to be President, and is capable of getting elected to the position, should never be allowed to actually do the job.
The logic is compelling.
Most people in the Galaxy, including quite a few on Earth, seem to think that most decisions are made by one or more computers.
These people are very, very wrong.
The Ruler of the Universe
Somewhere in the Galaxy, a short distance from nowhere in particular, you will not find a small, unremarkable planet that is home to a shabby-looking shack by a winding path that leads to the seashore.
You will not find this world because it appears on no maps, no star charts. It is also protected by a powerful Improbability Field to which only six keys exist. You are very unlikely to find it unless you know exactly where it is.
Inside this unremarkable shack on its unremarkable world, you might find a very interesting man.
Civilizations are built or destroyed on his words. Wars begin and end based solely on his answers to the questions posed by his occasional visitors. His decisions affect the daily lives and ultimate fates of trillions of beings.
He doesn’t believe a word of it.
He’ll answer the door if you knock politely. When he does, go ahead and ask. Ask him if he rules the Universe. His answer is pretty clear.
“I try not to.”
Observation
The ruler of the Universe believes in nothing beyond the immediate evidence of his senses.
His frequent visitors bring him whiskey and cigarettes, as well as fresh fish for his cat. He only knows when they have come because these things are present in his shack.
I realize that repeatedly calling him “the ruler of the Universe” is somewhat cumbersome, but it is necessary. He has no name.
He sometimes wonders what his cat is thinking. The ruler of the Universe wonders whether the cat believes the visitors are singing to him instead of asking questions.
He also sees the flaw in this logic, and he wonders if the visitors come to sing to his cat. Maybe he only believes they are asking him questions.
The ruler of the Universe lives completely in the present.
In his own words…
“How can I tell that the past isn’t a fiction designed to account for the discrepancy between my immediate physical sensations and my state of mind?”
The ruler of the Universe has a point.
Evidence
I do not know the questions that the visitors ask the ruler of the Universe (or the songs they sing to his cat). His methods are simple.
“I say what it occurs to me to say when I think I hear people say things. More I cannot say.”
When confronted by Zarniwoop, one of the editors of the Guide, about the impact of his answers on the lives of everyone outside the shack, he asks how Zarniwoop can be sure there is a Universe out there.
The door is closed.
When Zarniwoop presses the point, the ruler of the Universe does respond.
“You seem very sure of your facts. I couldn’t trust the thinking of a man who takes the Universe — if there is one — for granted.
“I only decide about my Universe. My Universe is my eyes and my ears. Anything else is hearsay.”
The ruler of the Universe believes only in what he can directly observe.
Uncertainty
If you really think about it, most of what we claim to know about the world is either hearsay or assumption.
Every bit of information beyond your immediate senses is second-hand.
That doesn’t make it wrong. It does make it uncertain.
We can work with uncertainty. None of us have actually been to Mars to experience it first-hand, but we can still do the math to land a robot on its surface. At least, we believe we have done so.
We still receive data from the Voyager probes as they tell us they are leaving our solar system. I follow them on Twitter.
I cannot prove that those two satellites are actually where they say they are. I cannot get to them. I cannot see them, and I definitely cannot touch them.
Conclusion
The ruler of the Universe is an extreme case. We’ll never get anywhere in Analytics if we require first-hand proof of every bit of data.
We should, however, know the source of our data. We should also be able to justify our use of it and attain consensus (or at least significant agreement) that it is valid for our purposes.
We should also ensure that our data analyses return meaningful results in order to provide relevant insights and guidance.
“All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.”
That statement is often attributed to the statistician George Box, although I’m fairly sure it predates him. Either way, it’s a good one to keep in mind.
As to the Universe… I feel like it’s in pretty good hands, yeah?
You can see more of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to Analytics here.
For other perspectives on uncertainty…
