Moments and Momentum
A Post Mortem on the Super Bowl & Our Leading Indicator Challenge
Super Bowl LI is in the history books and with plenty of footnotes. It was the first Super Bowl overtime, the first comeback of more than 10 points, and then there are all the records associated with Tom Brady. There were plenty of amazing catches and turnovers. Heck, even the two coin flips will be memorable.
So how did our contest go? Well, a little bit quieter than we hoped. Folks like John (Jack) Byrnes, Daniel, and Zack Vella have plenty of right to brag, but I wonder how confident any of them were last night? Personally, routing for Atlanta, I felt pretty good about being wrong with just a few minutes left in the game (I picked New England).
I picked New England based on an unusual Leading Indicator predicated on Belichick’s days of preparation without surprise. I can’t say that indicator felt very good for the first three quarters, where the Patriots looked anything but prepared. Jack hung his hat on defensive pass efficiency and while I am not completely clear on how he defined it — the Falcons had the highest yards per attempt and completion…
Zack relied on his models and Madden stats… and in the end, Patriot bench players like Hogan & Bennett did contribute to the win. All our winners have a claim to an accurate and thoughtful prediction. Oddly, no one mentioned the running game. Seriously, it appears even the coaches of both squads forgot about it… something at least the Falcons are second guessing.
In the end, while Daniel’s leading indicator may have been one of the weaker (as leading indicators go), it may also have been the most telling. Few can argue that it was the Patriot’s Defense getting the better of Falcon’s offense in the second half that turned this game around.
The Precarious Nature of Leading Indicators on Display
ESPN, BleacherReport, the Wall Street Journal and more were all live blogging and tweeting throughout last nights competition. WSJ was nice enough to create this wonderful graphic at left.
So much for leading indicators… or maybe just the nebulous prediction model created by PredictionMachine.com
Moments & Momentum
Football is often described as a game based on momentum. Throughout this year’s playoffs, I found it fairly predictive up until last night. Or perhaps last night was just an exclamation point. In the end, Atlanta was unable to keep the momentum. It took a strip, a catch, a sack, and a penalty — but momentum had clearly shifted to the Patriots late in the game.
Our other articles in this series spoke to the complexity and use of leading indicators in situations like this:
Both of these articles speak to the complexity of predicting performance and outcomes. This Superbowl, perhaps more than any other, emphasized the need for using multiple indicators and understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each. The rules of football are complicated:
…but the rules of most markets, most industries, and most businesses can be even more so. They have been around a lot longer. They are contested daily, not during a defined season with a set final game. While they may not make for as great a spectacle, they are far more of a challenge!
With that, our #SBLIndicators challenge ends as well. Thanks to everyone brave enough to submit their prediction! Congrats to those who got it right. And thanks for reading!
Join our network and help contribute to future articles and contest ideas. We are currently working on at least two separate contests for March.
