Probability vs Faith
Lessons in Risk Management from Rogue One **spoilers likely
Star Wars Rogue One is a story chock full of ‘Hope’. It seems to be a recurring theme of most of the franchise and, as the prequel to ‘A New Hope’, Rogue One was not going to be the first to ignore it. But Rogue One had a very unique spin on ‘Hope’ that was well captured by two of its more awesome characters.
K-2SO — Probability
There is always hope, it is just a matter of how much. Probability, when calculated properly, is a quantification of just how much. This is the specialty of K-2SO, a reprogrammed combat droid and partner of Captain Cassian Andor.
As K-2SO proves, probability can be a funny thing. When people hear low probabilities, they tend to discount outcomes purely because they are less likely. In fact, any probability short of 0 declares that the outcome you are seeking is possible… just not likely.
When managing risk, probability is a powerful tool for knowing likelihood and difficulty. The probability of truly random outcomes is all about likelihood. For non-random events however, it is an indicator of the difficulty of achieving the outcome you are looking for. This may require you to work harder, smarter, or just use an innovative technique.
Finally, K-2SO seems to have a slight cynicism built into his personality. This is potentially a side-effect of constantly being able to access the odds (and hanging out with a guy who is constantly trying to defy them). Personally, I will take his personality over C-3PO (the other droid who always had the odds). And of course, some people who find themselves in desperate situations would prefer to never know the odds…
Chirrut Imwe — Faith
Faith can also be a funny thing, especially blind faith. While Chirrut Imwe places his faith in the force, others place faith in themselves, their mission, their organization, or even their IP. This can be a huge advantage, especially if others underestimate the power of faith.
Much like the Force in the time of Rogue One, people often discount faith in today’s society. Academics, scientists, and plenty of folks with a modern arrogance dismiss the nuanced components of faith. Connection and effort are both emphasized in Rogue One, both by Chirrut and his companions. While the Force is a very mystical connection (midichlorians aside), many connections in the real world are predicated on logic and processes that elude science. Science is often quick to dismiss these, only to validate them decades later.
Faith as a risk management strategy is valid, though highly debatable. It is most appropriate if you feel that a particular risk is highly overstated due to inefficiencies of understanding or a strong believe in some offsetting advantage or understanding of your own. Unfortunately, many claim faith when choosing to simply ignore risk. At that point, you are simply relying on hope… and while hope is a powerful driver in any epic tale, it has never been much of a risk management strategy.
Star Wars began with Hope
It was ‘A New Hope’ that launched the Star Wars franchise. But it would take four decades before Rogue One would provide us two classic profiles of the techniques/attributes that truly create real hope. Sadly, it also showed the limit of such strategies. For all Chirrut’s faith or K-2SO’s understanding of probability, they both finally succumbed to overwhelming odds. But then again, Han’s luck eventually ran out, too. In the end, all three provided us heroic and entertaining role models. Thanks for reading!
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