Superhero Lessons in Analytics - Ep. VIII
Logical Inconsistency and Poor Attribution— Lessons from NightMan
NightMan was a series that aired in syndication from 1997–1999. Hercules, Xena, and other hit shows had followed a similar formula at that time. Unfortunately, NightMan was far from a hit show. It lasted only two seasons and probably wouldn’t have made in that long on any major network.
NightMan is the story of Johnny Domino, a saxophone player who is struck by lightning and gains telepathic powers to identify evil and a severe case of insomnia. If that sounds a little thin, no worries. Johnny also possesses a super suit that allow him to fly and turn invisible. Why? How? The world will never know…
Lessons in Failure
Unlike prior SLiA articles, this one is focused on the failures of a TV Superhero or at least its writers. The main lessons provided by NightMan is one of logical inconsistency and poor attribution. The story made no sense! For anyone who liked this series, just admit that you were just very happy to suspend disbelief.
This failure can be a strong lesson for analytics teams. First, failure is a learning opportunity for your team and your company just as much as a success. The only difference is on the P&L, learning from success has a far better chance of being profitable in the short term. Second, NightMan was short lived because the audience didn’t believe the story. It wasn’t compelling. This too is a great analogy for analytics. If your clients don’t buy in, you are doomed to be ineffective.
Logical Inconsistency and Poor Attribution
Another change for this episode is that we will address both lessons together. Logical inconsistency is a major cause of poor attribution. Or, perhaps more apropos, poor attribution is often attributable to logical inconsistency. So let’s get back to our superhero saxophone player…
The Superhero genre forces us to suspend disbelief and accept certain causalities that we would otherwise dismiss. Getting struck by lightning may cause insomnia but it isn’t giving people telepathic powers. But in that statement lies the seeds of human reason and a plausible superhero story. Lightning is an overwhelming force. Most people are willing to acknowledge that getting struck by lightning can cause unexpected results. We are more inclined to dismiss Johnny’s two outcomes for other reasons.
To be honest, I don’t know if being hit by lightning has ever caused extreme insomnia. What I do know is that extreme insomnia does indeed happen, although the kind Johnny had (never sleeping) often results in death or dementia. I also know that no one, as yet, has ever proven to have telepathic powers. Telepathic powers live on that edge of human acceptance that allows one to quite easily play along.
Taking Things Way Too Far
If the show had only stopped there, perhaps NightMan could have had a long run. Unfortunately, they next expected us to believe that our lightning strike surviving sax man also had access to a super suit. If the suit had merely been bullet proof, we might have been able to play along. The writers however also asked us to accept that the suit could also fly and become invisible. Now where did he find this again…?
Analytics is not always fool proof. Hypotheses and models often require us to accept assumptions, suspend disbelief, or allow for unknowns. But these ‘leaps of faith’ need to be as few and as small as possible. They should also have a reasonable talk off… Nightman gave us none of that.
NightMan has all the feel of a TV show trying to cash in on recent trends and popularity. In other words, someone in production want NightMan to look a lot like the Batman that had recently collected huge returns at the box office. Even better if they could give him a one-eyed pseudo Terminator look and of course, thanks to Bill Clinton, saxophones were still all the rage. If only they could have gotten Donald Trump to have made a cameo, they could bring the series back today… oh wait.
Analysts should learn from NightMan. Make certain that your assumptions, attributions, and hypotheses are logically consistent. If a model or story line requires your audience to make a leap of faith, keep it small. Don’t ask repeatedly and have a plausible explanation for why that leap of faith could be true. Pushing thin or unbelievable attribution will likely lead you to the same fate as NightMan — obscurity.
Read Episode IX: Lesson from Gotham — here.
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