Superhero Lessons in Analytics Ep. XXII
Over-complicated & Over-hyped — The Greatest Lessons from this Season of CW’s DC Titles
Boy that subtitle is long… and greatest? Really? Honestly, probably not. But a little extra complexity and extra hype seemed … well appropriate. This latest season (17–18) for the CW titles — Arrow, Flash, Legends, and Black Lightning have been challenging to say the least. (I am not including Supergirl or the cross over event, the latter was pretty solid). Of course these articles are about analytics, which interestingly enough suffers the same challenges the CW’s line up is currently suffering.
Let’s Start With Arrow… Then Add A Few Dozen Other People
The Arrow, which began with a lone vigilante in a hood, has blossomed into multiple teams of heroes and villians to the point you need a search engine to remember all of them. The opening credits, which used to feature a single arrow, now feature an array of odd insignias that don’t even come close to capturing all the recurring cast members. The cast list is… over-complicated.
It is a brute force version of over-complicated to boot, at least this season. This was not an iterative addition of new faces. We got wholesale imports of multiple teams — first Team Arrow, then Team Cayden. This is the least forgivable form of over-complication. Analyst beware.
But Arrow isn’t done, it also added the cardinal sin of a know-everything super villain. Interestingly enough, Cayden James — our BI using, ultra-intelligent, master hacker — was only being manipulated by the ever more devious Ricardo Diaz.
On one hand, Diaz mercifully killed or drove off at least one team (and is trying for more). On the other hand, we are expected to believe that the super genius tech wizard was out-thought by a guy with the IQ of a garden shrub. His evil machinations are certainly more brute force but they are no less complicated. Diaz was an opportunity to create a more compelling villain (check) and a more simplified plot (fail).
The New Guy… Err Guy & Gal… Team… sigh
Black Lightning was a world of potential that never really materialized. It was also an exercise in iterative complexity. It seems like each week we got a new hero (or villain) and a new suit. Iterative complexity happens. And so far, perhaps Black Lightning hasn’t gone too far. But it wasn’t really helpful either… Add complexity should always have a purpose. Always.
The Man Who Is Fast In Title Only…
Ah, the Flash, the fastest man alive! So fast, he can stop time. Only Flash never seems to be faster than anyone. Yes, the Thinker may be the smartest man alive, but he is also a disabled old man who routinely surprises the Flash. But then so does nearly everyone, even the adversaries he has met before.
In fact, from roughly season two on, Flash seems to lose every race. Flash is more likely the most over-hyped man alive. He can speed read, speed heal, even speed phase through solid objects. So why is he is always coming up slow? Analyst beware — don’t believe the hype, believe the outcome.
The Over-hyped Menagerie Of Tomorrow…
Let’s start with, every image I found of the team included Legends who are no longer there. Roughly half. You don’t always need iteration to create complexity. Sometimes it only requires change.
The Legends can change time. Pretty amazing, right!? Only it never really seems to be. The Legends always seem to be up against amazing forces, with amazing consequences, and amazing ramifications. And then you get this…
Yes, Beebo. It is hard to take any part of this show seriously. And clearly the writers gave up trying. Legends is the epitome of over-hyped. And if time travel is so powerful, why is every season a quest for better weapons (staves, totems, etc)?
Lessons For Analysts
TV shows are not the only victims of over-complication and over-hype. Analytics suffers from both as well. AI has yet to save the world. The Algorithm never seems to evolve fast enough.
Analytic models on everything from Global Warming to the Economy are overly complex and with no measurable increase in accuracy. Simple concepts like Bayes Theorem seem only ever to be reproduced with complicated mathematics.
Analytics is also storytelling. All be it with a purpose. Complicating and hyping a story line is normally not a good option. The same is true of any model — be it statistical, process, or organizational. Learn from the CW’s heroes. Stick to simpler times and more meaningful outcomes. Avoid iterative complexity and over-hyping the power of things. Thanks for reading!
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