Superhero Lessons in Analytics… Episode IV
Causality and Inflection Points — Lessons from Heroes
NBC originally launched the Heroes series in 2006. The initial season was a huge success and propelled it through 76 chapters(episodes) over four seasons. Some credit this series for relaunching the superhero TV genre, others would argue that it was simply a follow on to the box office success of X-men and others.
The original story lines followed an emerging string of newly minted superhero struggling to understand their new abilities and learn their place in the universe. The latter was equally challenging for the audience due to numerous plot twists and themes to the show.
When the CW began their own line of superhero shows a few years ago, not to be outdone, NBC announced the reboot of their once popular series. Heroes reborn was effectively the sequel and sometime prequel to the original series. Its story lines would follow a quite different path.
Lesson I — Causality
“Save the cheerleader… save the world” -Hiro Nakamura
No phrase is more synonymous with the Heroes franchise. The phrase went viral and was marketing brilliance. NBC would attempt to replicate that success with other shows, but none were able to recapture the magic of Save the cheerleader, save the world. Do you remember What is the Event? Probably not, that NBC series lasted only one season.
The first season of heroes was built on the concept of that phrase. The entire plot line was revealed to be a giant chain of events with each link causing the next. Hiro, the aptly named main facilitator of the plot, raised boldly from location to location and hero to hero, attempting to break the chain of causality.
Analytic teams often struggle with their own chains of causality. It is one of the hardest things to properly analyze and yet, one most demanded by business clients. Causal chains require varying perspectives and techniques to uncover and define. Heroes gave examples of many techniques, from outcome evaluation to time series analysis. Granted your analytics team won’t likely employ time traveling swordsman or comic book artists who see the future.
Lesson II — Inflection Points
Heroes reborn still employed time travel and premonition, but the story line of the new season changed. Where as the original cast of heroes was mainly unable to break the causal chains, the new group appears to alter and break those chains readily, although oddly still on an unavoidable path to a final event.
Plot twists arise as these various inflection points suddenly alter the story. Character loyalties change, people die, people are reborn, and timelines are altered. On the basis of both ratings and my personal take on the show, this was not nearly as compelling. This changes were almost jarring. We will see what the next season brings…
For analysts, event analysis is an equally difficult task. Not because it is hard, but because it is often so prevalent. Much like the show, numerous events are effecting numerous elements of your portfolio and shifting things in an almost never-ending fashion. No one event is difficult, but modeling them in near random time series is.
Some people strongly believe that event analysis is critical to portfolio management and optimization. Perhaps, once it is perfected, this could be true. But that requires significant mapping, research, and resource. Not surprisingly, the result is much like that of Heroes: Reborn first season. For all the volatility along the way, the end result remains unaltered.
Both causality and inflection points (events) are strong factors in the analytic process. Enjoy Heroes for its intriguing plot twists and its character development. But if you work in analytics, also take a little time to draw some inspiration from gripping determination of the shows Heroes to understand and control these powerful factors.
Read Episode V: Lessons From The Greatest American Hero
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