Trump: The Art of the Benchmark
A Collection of the Best Lessons in the Greatest Article Ever
Donald Trump is a polarizing figure. Many people love him. Many others don’t. There are plenty of benchmarks available that confirm this statement. Whether you fall in one of those camps or are totally disinterested — Donald Trump can teach you plenty of lessons on why benchmarks are important.
Donald Trump loves bravado
This article is not an indictment of Donald’s style. He has a brand. He has always engaged in personal marketing. He uses bravado to make people pay attention to his message.
“The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people’s fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That’s why a little hyperbole never hurts.” from The Art of the Deal
Plenty of studies with solid benchmarks support that this is drawing more attention than other candidates, celebrities, and competitors who don’t employ his techniques. Whether this ultimately contributes to his success, only benchmarks will tell…
What is a benchmark?
Let’s remove the bravado and make a more accurate statement: Donald Trump has had success as a businessman, as a writer, and as a reality TV star. Without the bravado, this is a statement that is very easy to believe. Well, maybe…
First, we should define success. But even if you define success by the money he has made, the books he has sold, and the ratings and viewership he has attracted — you still would fall short of proving this statement. What you need are benchmarks.
Benchmarks are a relevant point of comparison. Relevant in that comparing Donald’s earnings to a group of college kids or his viewership to the Superbowl is unlikely to provide you with the proper perspective. In other words:
Compared to what?
The key to a good benchmark is that it gives a relevant point of comparison to help you understand the claim or statistic you are trying to validate. You want to use comparisons that fit the claim and that are easily justified as apples to apples.
For example, comparing Trump’s earnings to that of the average CEO might make perfect sense. Limiting the benchmark to CEOs operating in the Real Estate market primarily on the US East Coast is likely even better, assuming that group is large enough.
Choosing the proper benchmark can get more vexing as the claim gets more colorful and boastful. Consider this:
“I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.”
How does one even begin to validate such a claim? Mr. Trump likely doesn’t care, but for us, it is another lesson.
Benchmark metrics — it is easier and more meaningful
While you can try to benchmark a claim, it is probably better and easier to stick to metrics. To properly validate a claim, you need to develop criteria. The criteria need to be easy to communicate and broadly accepted. Developing good criteria is an article unto itself and not something Mr. Trump has provided much inspiration for.
Metric benchmarks are much cleaner, easier, and ultimately more meaningful. Additionally, while all the recommendations on relevance still hold, metrics can be used as their own benchmark. This often takes the form of year-over-year comparisons. Finally, because they are numbers, metrics are easily compared to forecasts or expectation. It is advisable to use a combination of these techniques.
But back to Donald… If it is so much easier to benchmark metrics, why does he do it so rarely? Other candidates and other businessmen provide metrics all the time. As an example, let’s look at Jeb Bush
“In Florida, during my eight years, we grew at 4.4 percent per year, and we created, together, many of the people in this room, by creating a better environment, we created 1.3 million net new jobs — more jobs created than Texas, more jobs created than any state in country other than California, a state 2 1/2 times our size,” Jeb Bush at Economic Growth Summit
Jeb clearly provides both metrics and benchmarks. This makes it easier to validate his implied claim about his ability to be our next president, but easier is a relative claim (it has its own benchmark). While easier, his metrics are not beyond reproach. More importantly, it is not clear how meaningful they truly are.
Benchmarks can be very boring…
Some will argue that Donald Trump’s bravado is calculated to avoid real validation. That he sticks to broad claims over clear metrics, because the metrics wouldn’t support his claims. Worse still, they might make it easier for his opponents to refute them.
I suspect Trump is more calculated. When you use Jeb’s comments as a benchmark — a slightly more abstract one — you see a stark contrast. Benchmarks are a binding framework. They tether numbers and claims to reality. They remove the magic.
If you are trying to comprehend statistics and trends, if you are trying to break down and validate a claim — this is a great thing. If you are a natural salesman attempting to build excitement and aura — it is not. But there are some benchmarks that Trump loves…
Polls and surveys are useful — but they aren’t great benchmarks
This brings us to the most controversial statement of this article. Donald Trump actually understates his reliance on poll numbers!
“A new poll indicates… have you seen the latest polls… my poll numbers say it all…” Donald Trump from every interview and twitter post in the last three months.
There is no mistaking Trump’s reliance on polls since joining the presidential race, but a look back at his career indicates this is nothing new.
Donald has spent most of his life working in the service industry. And while there is great skill in buying and renovating properties, success only comes with customer satisfaction. This is the benchmark he has come to rely on.
Polls are sometimes the only tools available
I suspect that when Trump declares his buildings, golf courses, casinos, and even books as “the best”, “greatest”, and “most successful” — it is not because he failed his English lesson on the use of comparatives and superlatives. Rather, he is basing his view on polls, surveys, and other metrics of customer satisfaction.
There is no doubt that these tools can work in many cases. Where other metrics are missing, unreliable, or indirect — surveys and polls can fill the gap. But how does one map high poll numbers or survey scores to statements like “most successful”. It would be more accurate to follow the lead of the automotive industry — highest in customer satisfaction. But this defeats his true purpose:
