Syrian Civil War
Within the framework of #CrisisManagement_CrisisSimulationLab, we were given the opportunity to take a look on Syria’s crisis.
Team: The Marvels (Rebecca Bacharnikou, Maria Kakoliri, Nena Nicolaou, Rafaela Panayiotou, Dimitris Troupos)
Instructors: Betty Tsakarestou, Mania Xenou, Effie Lazaridou
The Main Reasons of the Syria’s War
The Syrian civil war began as a hope for freedom, democracy and economic regeneration. Tough government policy and poor economic situation have created strong reactions. This resulted in the creation of armed groups in which the aim was to overthrow Assad and then they were united under the flag of the Free Syrian Army. Shortly thereafter, they created the National Syrian Council in Istanbul on October 2, 2011, where they acted more organized. The Syrian government has developed an army to contain this rebellion.
There have been rumors of the participation of dissidents in the rebellion, however the government has not admitted that this has happened. This conflict, between the government and the opposition, is of a religious nature as the opposition is largely made up of Sunni Muslims, while the government’s high-level steles from the Muslims. Finally, this conflict resulted in a long-standing civil and external interventions.
Conflicting Parties
The United States of America (U.S.A)
The United States of America (U.S.A) provided support to Syrian rebels fighting the Syrian regime, with the aim of pressuring President Bashar al-Assad. The basic goal of the United States of America has been fighting Islamic State. It began an air campaign against the group in 2014 and sent in ground troops the next year to assist Kurdish forces fighting the Islamist fanatics. After Islamic State lost territorial control of the caliphate it had declared, Donald Trump in December 2018 announced that the Αmerican forces would withdraw its troops from Syrian area.
Russia
Russia intervened in Syria in September of 2015 when it started airstrikes against ISIS fanatics and other terrorists. In recent years, Russia is the main power of Syria’s land. President Vladimir Putin is protecting The Assad Regime for the following reasons. Firstly, Russia’s military intervention has made it an unavoidable geopolitical interlocutor for the rest of the world. Secondly, Russia presents the integrity of Syrian governance structures as a bulwark against radical Islamist alternatives.
Turkey
Turkey has played a composite role in the Syrian war. Undoubtedly, Turkey and Syria remain intertwined due to the host of ethnic, economic and geopolitical and social connections between them. Morever, Turkey is the main member of the U.S.A bloc, against the Islamic State. Nevertheless, it’s frequently attacked the U.S.-armed Syrian Kurdish fighters of YPG. Turkey has repeatedly threatened to occupy a part of Syria to push the YPG away from its border and on the 9th of October, Turkish armed forces began crossing into Syrian territory.
Islamic State
The Islamic State is also known as ISIS. This terrorist organization is known for killing dozens of people around the world and many other violent tactics and acts. The fanatics members of ISIS aimed to create an Islamic state called a caliphate across Iraq, Syria and beyond. In 2014, ISIS controlled more than 34,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq, from the Mediterranean coast to south of Baghdad. However, during recent years, ISIS has lost the control of wider area.
Syrian Kurds
People’s Protection Units (YPG) is a mainly-Kurdish block in Syria and the main component of the Syrian Democratic Forces. These forces emerged after the Civil War erupted in Syria and started to spill over into Syrian Kurdistan, known as Rojava. The People’s Protection Units (YPG) seeks for autonomy for the Kurdish population of Syria and has shown a willingness to collaborate with any power capable of advancing that goal.
The Assad Regime
Bashar al-Assad’s forces backed by Hezbollah, Russian forces and Iran have managed to reclaim most of the terrain once held by Syrian rebels. The Assad regime ignited the largest refugee crisis in recent history by launching a war against its own people that has displace around half the country’s population of 25 million.
Syrian Rebels
Syrian rebels are the armed wing of the opposition movement that emerged out of the 2011 uprising against the Syria’s Regime. The vast majority of Syrian rebels want a democratic Syria and many of these rebels agree in principle that the nature of the post-Assad system should be decided in free elections.
Aftermath of Turkish Invasion: Winners and Losers
Kurds are “the most obvious immediate losers” after recent developments.First of all, the establishment of independent Kurdistan is not likely in the medium term.Kurds have been abandoned by their main allies, the U.S. and feel betrayed. Moreover, at least 160.000 Kurds have been displaced following Turkish attacks.
U.S.A. seem embarrassed to say the least. President Trump is being accused for inconsistent strategy regarding Syria. U.S. have lost credibility for abandoning Kurds, their main allies in the region. They have also lost significant geopolitical power in the Middle East. On the other hand, it is arguable that U.S.A. disentangle themselves from endless Middle Eastern conflicts
Turkey reached its goals without suffering any sanctions. It Gained prestige regarding diplomatic and military capability. Turkey dealt a mighty blow on Kurds and increased its leverage on Syrian grounds. Moreover, the “safe zone” will be probably repatriated by Syrian refugees that currently live in Turkey.Escalation of hostilities towards Greece and Cyprus is possible. However, Turkish boldness makes NATO uncomfortable.
Russia seems to be the biggest winner amongst all parties. First of all, it reinforced its geopolitical leverage in Middle East filling the void left by the Americans. Moreover, Russia gained international prestige and Established itself as a key-player in the region.
Consequences
The war in Syria began on 11 March 2011 and today, eight years later, this civil conflict that has taken a huge and uncontrolled turn still counts victims. The consequences of this war are many and his wounds even more. It was launched by two demonstrations against Bashar al-Assad, in the capital of Syria, Damascus, where they were violently suppressed by the Assad regime. Eight years later, the war continues and the people involved are many. Interests are many.
The dead of war exceeds 370,000. The human rights of Syrian people are being violated in a violent way every day.
Eleven million people have left their homes, seven million have moved to safe places within Syria, while 4 million have migrated to foreign countries. The Syrian world is torn from its homes with the only hope of being saved and able to gain a better tomorrow. Immigration in foreign countries has created many problems, as the countries that receive refugees are reacting to the large number and internal confusion is being created.
After the outbreak of ISIS, worldwide, fear and concern for Syrian refugees was created, which does not help in their smooth assimilate. The Syrian exodus is considered the largest since the Rwandan genocide, since we are talking about the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of our times. For Syrians who remain in the war zone the basic needs of food and medical care are lacking.
The hospitality camps in Jordan and Lebanon, due to the increasing flow of refugees are at a tipping point and because of the hygiene problems there is a huge risk for the onset of epidemics such as cholera and typhus. More than 86.7 million children under 7 years old are dead. Children who have lived the war, according to surveys, are turned into non-active civilians.
The United Nations estimated that in order to tackle the humanitarian crisis in Syria and for the intra-border and the migrants, they would need at least $9 billion. We are obviously talking about a huge destruction of humanity that continues to count victims.
Latest Updates
Many new events have affected the outcome of the Syrian war and the main participants that are involved in the war. To begin with, the US military forces have withdrawn from their largest base in northern Syria and transferred to western Iraq. After this decision, the Turkish forces deploy to Syrian border. The operation mainly aims to remove the Kurdish forces from the border area and ‘create a safe zone” to which millions of Syrian refugees can be returned to their country.
This move, as mentioned before, came after the United States announced it was withdrawing its troops from the area, leaving the Syrian Democratic Forces, its main ally in the battle against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant armed group, without US military support. Furthermore, Erdogan and Putin made a deal for withdrawal of the Kurdish fighters from Syria border area, giving them 150 hours to leave.
The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces announced that they agreed to withdraw its troops from the Turkish border, in order to stop the Turkish military operation in Syria border area. Finally, a crucial news announcement is the death of Islamic state leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who died during a military operation. After his death, The US military reinforcing its positions around the main oil wells in eastern Syria. The operation’s purpose is to prevent the Islamic State and other organizations from gaining access to them.
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