What Could Dominik Kubalik’s Next Contract Look Like?
No one could have expected how well, Dominik Kubalik, would play this season. We had all seen the highlights, and his point totals in Europe, but he wasn’t a sure thing. Stan Bowman, just kept raving about his skill and how good his shot was. He was 100% right in his assessment of Kubalik.
Kubalik started off a little slow, but once he was put with Jonathan Toews and Brandon Saad on the first line, he was unstoppable. He put up an impressive stat line of 30 goals and 16 assists in 68 games. He may have the best shot on the team and was one of the best goal scorers at even strength this year. He had the 2nd highest goals per 60, with 1.87. Who was the player in front of him you may ask? None other than Alex Ovechkin.
For a fifth round pick, I think the ‘Hawks got a steal in that trade. But now comes the question, how much will he want to be paid? It’s a good thing that he’s an RFA, but on the flipside the cap isn’t going up this offseason. So let’s take a look at a few comparable contracts and come to a conclusion in the end.
The Comparables
In a recent article by, Scott Powers of The Athletic, he wrote about this very topic. Here’s a short snippet from that article.
“Another league source thought what the Vegas Golden Knights did with William Karlsson might make sense. After Karlsson erupted for 43 goals during the 2017–18 season, the Knights gave him a one-year contract worth $5.25 million. After Karlsson had another solid year for them, they gave him a long-term contract.”
It’s not a bad comparable, but at the same time, Karlsson, is a center and is better defensively. So I’m going to take a look at a couple more players.
I went back a few years to the 2015–2016 season and went up to 2018–2019. I found 17 players that are somewhat similar to Dominik Kubalik. I’ll first look at the 2015–2016 season and work my way up.
In the 2015–2016 season there weren’t too many great comparable players. The two players who would be the most comparable would be Tyler Toffoli and Boone Jenner. With Jenner he has the exact same stat line, but in 14 more games played. With Toffoli I think his stat line is more comparable, but Toffoli had way more NHL experience.
In 2016–2017 we see players that compare more to Kubalik. I’d say Viktor Arvidsson compares very well to someone like Dominik Kubalik. Same age, similar draft position and similar points per game. The big difference comes with the assists and the total games played. Rickard Rakell put up similar numbers to Kubalik, but already had around two more years of NHL experience. Anthony Mantha on the other hand still had another year on his contract after this breakout season.
Again we see three players who compare pretty well to Kubalik. I think that Ondrej Kase is the best comparable so far. Just in general, they both possess an excellent shot and are very good skaters. Additionally, both are from the Czech Republic and were both drafted in the seventh round. Kubalik’s stat line is a bit better than Kase’s, but they’re both very good. Travis Konecny and Kevin Fiala both put up similar numbers to Kubalik, but they also had a higher draft pedigree, played more games and are younger.
We probably get our best comparable in the 2018–2019 season, in Andreas Johnsson. They have a very similar stat line, though Kubalik has a few more goals scored and a better points per game. Johnsson and Kubalik were both taken in the seventh round, they both are the same age and have a similar amount of games played. Jakub Vrana is another pretty good comparable. Both score a lot at even strength and are a similar age. The problem again with Vrana, Kasperi Kapanen, Pavel Buchnevich and Alex Tuch is their draft pedigree and a games played. They don’t quite match up to Kubalik.
Looking at short and long term deals
I think there’s potential for both a short term and long term deal for Kubalik. I’m thinking the ‘Hawks are probably looking for a short term deal just to see if he can replicate his play next season. At the same time, if they want a short term deal they probably want to keep him as an RFA as long as possible. So it’s probably going to be a two year deal if I had to guess.
I’m going to take an average cap hit of those one-to-three year deals listed above, and find an average price. The cap hit I got was exactly $2,990,000 per year for two years. I’d probably expect him to ask for $3,000,000 to $3,500,000.
Similarly to the short term deal, I’ll be taking the average of the four-to-seven year deals listed above. That takes us to about $4,420,000 per year for five years. I think this is actually a decent price for a longer term deal, but I don’t see the Blackhawks wanting that.
Final Thoughts
It will be interesting to see what the Blackhawks do with Dominik Kubalik’s contract. They have to be careful with it because they have to bring back Corey Crawford and Dylan Strome among others.
I’d expect him to take a two year deal at around $3,500,000 as I mentioned earlier. I think that would be a reasonable and good deal for both parties. Hopefully they can bring him back at a good price.
stats via: Natural Stat Trick
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