Copper World Mine and Refined Production Since 1900

One of just a handful of metals that exist on the surface of the earth in a condition that can be used for direct metallic production is copper, sometimes referred to as native copper.

Early humans began using the metal as a result of its initial discovery in almost 10,000 BC in several areas. Centuries later, copper proved to be the first metal that had the feature of being shaped in a mold and then the first one to be smelted from sulfide ores.

It was also the first metal that was deliberately blended with tin to produce a kind of copper alloy called bronze at about 4000 BC.

Since around several millennia ago, copper has played a significant role in the world. It is used for everything from home and agricultural equipment to decorative items and even wartime armament.

Yet, it was not until the emergence of the ongoing advancements of the Industrial Revolution all through the 19th century as the role of copper fundamentally evolved, making it a key metal of contemporary life as a result of its considerable usage in enormous pipelines for the transportation of water and waste, as well as the development of electricity and the demand for effective electric wires.

Perhaps that is the reason why 94 percent of the total copper produced worldwide since the birth of civilization has been mined after 1900.

With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1 percent, the data properly matches an exponentially growing curve.

There is also a prolonged time record of refined copper consumption, which was originally much similar to copper mine production, as per the estimates of ICSG.

However, secondary copper sources started to supplement primary resources of copper output as the amount of the copper product grew while copper commodities approached the completion of their efficient lifespans. The CAGR for the output of refined copper is somewhat greater at 3.3 percent.

Likewise, it is notable to indicate that in 2020, the total global smelter production of copper stood at approximately 24.5 million metric tons.

Given that 24.5 million metric tons of smelted copper were produced worldwide in 2020, the production of refined copper grew by 9.7 million metric tons between 2000 and 2020.

According to a staggering accurate measurement made by the copper industry since the 1940s, the amount of mined copper over the next twenty-five years would be as large as what has already been mined over the previous 4,000 years.

That would be owing to the technological advancement in the mining industry as well as the growing demand for copper derived by power energy transition to meet the target of net-zero emissions.

This would be conducive to an imbalance between copper demand and supply, affecting the price of red metal, especially over the course of the longer term.

As copper plays an indispensable role in several major industries, including the development of renewable power energy sources, construction, manufacturing autos, electronics, etc., it is no wonder to see it go up high in price.

The worth of the red metal has earned it the title of “Dr. Copper,” primarily due to the fact that it has served as a crucial gauge of the state of the world economy for many years.

A healthy economic growth could be inferred by copper’s soaring prices, whereas a substantial greater decline in the price of copper is sometimes deemed as the indicator of a shaky economy.

With the growing significance of the copper commodity in the industrial and economic sectors, let’s dig deep into one of the determiners of the red metal’s value by going to the bottom of copper production worldwide.

Copper extraction and processing

Two different kinds of geological deposits make up over 80 percent of the entire world’s supply of copper, according to a geologically collaborative worldwide evaluation of copper reserves that was performed in 2013 by the USGS.

The first one is deposits of porphyry copper, which make up around 60 percent of the copper in the world and are found wherever minerals of copper ore are scattered in volcanic rocks.

The second kind is sediment-hosted strata-bound copper deposits, which make up roughly 20 percent of the globe’s copper and are composed of stratified rocks with layers of copper contained inside them.

In order to produce copper, copper-bearing ores must first be extracted. There are three main methods for extracting copper: surface mining (open pit), underground mining, and leaching, while the first is the most common method of copper extraction.

After being mined, the ore is pulverized and dissolved in water so as to create a slurry. After that, with the use of a froth flotation procedure, a concentrate would be made up of the slurry. The average amount of copper in concentrates is roughly 30 percent; grades can vary from 20 to 40 percent.

Usually, the excess water in the wet concentrates is reduced by thickening, and the moisture is subsequently dried to lower than 5 percent. The next stage of the smelting process takes copper and turns it into a liquid “matte” that contains 50 to 70 percent copper, as the remainder is sulfur.

In a converter, the matte is processed to remove sulfur, whereas sulfur dioxide is frequently treated to be processed further to make sulfuric acid.

Then the outcome blister copper that possesses 98.5 to 99. 5 percent of copper would be often refined by fire so as to eliminate any remnant sulfur imperfections before it would be cast into anodes, which are then electro-refined to make utterly purified copper cathodes that are considered to be the copper output product.

The other hydrometallurgical method of the copper production process, also called SX-EW, involves leaching, solvent extraction, and electro-winning to produce copper from primarily poor oxide ore and also several sulfide ores.

According to the ICSG, SX-EW contributed about 16 percent of all refined copper production in 2019. SX-EW output, which was essentially nil until the 1960s, reached 3.9 Mt in 2019.

Primary copper production refers to the refined copper output obtained from mine production (either by metallurgical processing or SX-EW since it can be obtained from initial resources of raw materials.

Nevertheless, scrap is still another significant source of raw materials, as secondary copper production refers to the production of refined copper that can be attributed to recycled scrap sources.

Processes used by secondary producers are identical to those used in primary production. According to ICSG statistics, 17 percent of the total copper output was produced through refinery sources in 2019.

Copper production since 1900

South American nations provide the majority of the world’s copper supply. South American mine production of copper surged from below 750,000 tones in 1960 to 8.8 Mt in 2019, composing 43 percent of the world’s copper production.

Furthermore, Asia has made great progress, going from only 6 percent to 15 percent during the corresponding period. North America, on the other hand, saw a decrease in its share from 36 to 13 percent.

Likewise, China’s smelted copper output surged quickly, contributing to about 50% of global copper smelter products in 2019, pursued by Japan (8%), Chile (5%), and the Russian Federation (5%). To the point that Asia’s proportion of the world’s copper smelter capacity increased from 27 percent in 1990 to 65 in 2019 as a result.

China is the world’s top producer of refined copper, making up about 41 percent of the overall production, while Chile places second with 9%, then followed by Japan with 6%, and the US with 4%.

World mine production of copper also proved to have recovered, rising 2.2% in 2021 following a 2% decline in 2020, mostly as a result of the global epidemic and associated constraints in copper extraction and refining.

The United States, Australia, Canada, Peru, Poland, and the Republic of Congo all saw increases in production in 2021, which contributed to a 2.8 percent growth in the world’s refined copper production.

This is while China, the global highest producer of refined copper, had no change in production in 2021.

By 2024, overall refining capacity is expected to increase to almost 32 million metric tons, up from slightly above 30 million metric tons in 2021, according to the International Copper Study Group, which anticipates continuous expansion in refining production output.

Industry predictions indicate that the deficit of copper by 2025 could be driven by rising demand from the building and power industries as well as the widespread use of electric cars.

In general, considerable infrastructures of sustainable energy sources are expected to drive copper demand, providing the solid groundwork for developing mining initiatives.

As depicted in the subsequent figure, Global copper production is anticipated to increase between 2022 and 2026 at a compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4%, hitting 25 Mt by 2026.

The main drivers of the increase will be Chile, Peru, China, and the DRC. Finally, these nations’ production is anticipated to increase from 11.7 million tonnes in 2022 to 13.1 million tonnes in 2026.

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